Ethereum is holding around $2,350 after a bounce off the $2,280 low, and our analysis has it sitting right on the weekly MA15 at $2,344. Yesterday’s picture was a confirmed daily downtrend pressing the $2,310 support confluence; today the intraday frames have turned constructive, with CMF strongly positive on the 4H (+18.5), 6H (+22.2) and 12H (+11.3), and the MACD histogram flipping positive on the 2H, 4H and 6H. That is genuine buying pressure, not short-covering.
Our previous call, set on 24 October, was a defensive HOLD with a bearish lean at the $2,343 entry. It resolved as a partial on both horizons. Price did break into the bear band, touching $2,280, but it recovered to close back inside the base range rather than sustaining a breakdown to $2,205. We leaned bearish, and the market gave us the dip but not the follow-through. The lesson we are taking from that is to respect the weekly bullish floor — the $2,344 MA15 has capped the downside twice — and to be more patient before expecting a clean break below $2,300.
Today the balance is genuinely mixed. The daily structure remains bearish: MACD at -57.9, -DI at 26.0 well above +DI at 10.8, and ADX at 42.3 confirming the downtrend. But the daily is deeply oversold, StochRSI K at 10.6, and the weekly remains bullish with MACD at +67.5 and CMF at +8.1. We also have the FOMC decision tonight, and US spot ETH ETFs saw $88.6 million in outflows, so the macro backdrop is risk-off.
Our call for the next 24 hours is HOLD, defensive, leaning bearish. We expect consolidation between $2,326 and $2,380, with a fade into the $2,380-2,410 zone on any strength. Over 48 hours, a break below $2,280 opens the $2,205 liquidation zone, while a reclaim of $2,380 targets $2,456. Given the conflict between the daily bear and the weekly bull, plus tonight’s Fed, we are keeping size reduced and waiting for confirmation before committing.
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