Ethereum’s slide has found its footing for now, but our analysis keeps us cautious on the upside. After the fade we flagged on October 21 at the 2545-2552 triple resistance confluence, ETH has fallen from roughly 2489 to 2343, a drop of about 146 points that validated our bearish-leaning stance. Both the 24-hour and 48-hour calls from our previous session scored a hit — price broke below the 2405 bear-band floor and then settled inside the 2371-2405 band, exactly where our downside scenarios expected it to go. <strong>The lesson we keep relearning is that a confirmed daily downtrend with distribution on the Chaikin Money Flow tends to win over intraday strength, especially when a triple resistance zone caps the first rally attempt.</strong>
Today the picture has shifted. ETH is sitting right on a dense support confluence around 2310-2314, where the daily 100-period average, the weekly 15-period average, and the 12-hour 200-period average all cluster. The daily structure remains firmly bearish — MACD is deeply negative at minus 51.8, the minus directional indicator dominates at 28.4 against 12.5, and daily CMF still reads negative at minus 9.7. But the intraday frames are stretched: 6-hour Stoch RSI is at 5.6, 12-hour at 11.7, and the daily at 11.1, all deeply oversold. That raises the odds of a relief bounce toward the 2407-2450 resistance zone.
The macro backdrop is what keeps our lean bearish. More than two hundred billion dollars have been wiped off the market in under a month, crypto longs lost four hundred million in four hours, and the Federal Reserve decides on rates October 28 — right inside our 48-hour window. We are holding a bearish lean, fading strength at resistance and watching the 2310 floor for a potential breakdown toward 2280. This is why we are not chasing longs here, even with the oversold readings.
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