Our analysis yesterday called for a 48H HOLD in the 79,500-82,000 base range, and that call landed as a hit. After the 10-23 breakdown below 81,000, bitcoin stabilized, wicking to a 79,175 low before closing 80,839 and 80,118 over the following two sessions, comfortably inside our base band. The shorter 24H call missed though — price did break the 81,000 floor as we flagged, but the selloff stalled at support rather than extending to the deeper bear targets. The lesson: an oversold daily StochRSI combined with a resilient weekly structure often turns a breakdown into a sideways base instead of a cascade.
Today bitcoin trades near 80,850, holding the reclaimed 80,000 zone and building a constructive base after two sessions of sideways churn. The daily CMF has flipped positive at +1.21 from -9.32 on the 23rd, a genuinely constructive shift that resolves the distribution warning we carried through the week. Money flow is now positive across every timeframe, with the 6H CMF at +23.79 and the weekly at +9.59, while the weekly uptrend stays intact with ADX 44.80 and a MACD histogram of +1,440. The daily momentum remains bearish — price sits below the 1D MA50 at 81,846 and the MACD histogram is -309 — but the deeply oversold StochRSI at K 8.14 and D 2.71 gives a strong bounce bias.
The immediate caveat is the overbought StochRSI on the 2H and 4H frames at K 99-100, plus the FOMC decision on Wednesday. We expect consolidation in the 80,000-81,000 zone first, with a daily close above 82,000 needed to confirm a larger recovery toward 82,617 and 82,824. Below, 79,300 is the line in the sand; a loss of that level would open the 79,538 and 78,000 supports. We trim size given the macro event risk and the conflict between our bullish weekly structure and the still-bearish daily momentum.
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