Ethereum has staged a solid recovery session, lifting back to roughly $2,489 after the deeper flush we called last Sunday. Our analysis reads this as a relief bounce inside a still-bearish daily structure rather than a clean trend turn. Price has reclaimed the $2,405 floor and sits above the daily moving average we track at $2,297, but it is now running into a cluster of resistance between $2,545 and $2,552 where the 6-hour, 12-hour and daily moving averages all converge. That triple confluence is the key test for the next move.
Looking back at our last session, we leaned SHORT from $2,392. The 24-hour call landed as a hit because price flushed to $2,327, inside the target band we had set, while the 48-hour call was a miss as the market reversed and pushed toward $2,489. The lesson is that the oversold daily StochRSI kept producing sharp bounces that capped how far the short could travel, and we should respect that pullback risk on multi-session shorts.
The intraday frames are bullish but overbought. The 4-hour and 6-hour StochRSI are both near the top of the range, and the 12-hour is pegged at 100, so we expect consolidation or a pullback within the next couple of sessions before any further leg. The daily Chaikin Money Flow is still printing a negative distribution reading, which is the hot-air balloon warning we keep repeating: a rally that climbs without money-flow support tends to deflate. ETF outflows have now run for fifteen straight sessions, yet price keeps defying them, and that divergence makes us cautious about chasing.
We are holding a bearish-lean stance, fading strength into the $2,545 to $2,552 zone rather than buying the breakout on the first attempt. A confirmed daily close above $2,552 with rising money flow would change our read. Next steps are to watch that confluence and the $2,405 floor. The weekly frame stays bullish and caps the downside, so we are not positioned for a collapse.
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