Our previous call (24H, 2026-11-06) held the 2205-2285 base band and it landed: the realized range over that horizon stayed inside the band on both candles we measured against its edge rules, verdict recorded hit before adding today. Lesson: when the base band is centered on confluence and the intraday frames are merely oversold, patience beats the bearish lean.
Today’s close sits near 2132 after one more violent late-session move left us ranging lower across most intraday frames during tonight’s reporting window. We are holding below every moving average on the fast charts while higher timeframes keep their repair story intact, so our bias stays cautious rather than aggressively directional here.
On the 2H chart, +DI 4.57 vs -DI 51.99, ADX 41.05, MACD line -26.39 under signal -15.31, hist -11.08, CMF -10.43. The 4H chart is below all 4 MAs (2272.35 / 2287.50 / 2327.51 / 2364.55) with the same pattern (MACD line -29.64 under signal -19.92, hist -9.72, CMF +5.62 repair). On the 6H chart, +DI 2.28 vs -DI 45.55 with CMF -8.90, price below all 4 MAs (2268.64 / 2326.29 / 2382.92 / 2460.93). On the 12H chart, +DI 18.67 vs -DI 46.68, CMF +4.29 (accumulation), price below MA-50 2332.92 and MA-200 2370.92. On the 1D chart, +DI 18.47 vs -DI 27.01, CMF -2.15, price below MA-50 2471.73, MA-100 2372.48, MA-150 2174.13, MA-200 2153.99. On the 1W chart, MACD line 18.25 rolled below signal 30.33, hist -12.08, CMF +11.88, price below MA-15 2367.73, MA-45 2198.98, MA-90 2642.89, above MA-30 2160.15.
The trend: bearish on the 2H/4H/6H frames with a confirmed flush; the 12H/1W frames are mixed with their CMF positive while the 1D frame is now mildly distributional. The daily candle low 2057.71 is a fresh low and the nearest structural support.
Forecast: HOLD with the bear band 2057-2140 as the next 24H window, base 2140-2205, bull 2205-2285. Rules triggered: RL-01, RL-04, RL-05, RL-06, RL-08, RL-10.
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