ETH at the 2,156 Floor: Crushed vs. Repairing

Yesterday delivered the round trip we warned about: the Nov-4 squeeze to 2451.35 failed under the daily MA-50/MA-100 stack and unwound completely, with Nov-5 printing a 2204.75 low before closing 2236.64, a 7.7% reversal that left our 48-hour band map partially overshoot.

Today’s 00:00 UTC snapshot splits the market in two. Intraday frames are decisively bearish: the 2H prints MACD -19.50 against a +3.98 signal (histogram -23.48), RSI 33.4 buried under its 53.7 average, -DI 48.9 crushing +DI 4.8 with ADX 47.1, and the board’s heaviest CMF outflow. The 4H and 6H agree, with price pinned under the full MA stack (2283–2320) and StochRSI at the floor (K 1.98/7.30). Yet the 12H MACD has crossed back above its signal, and the 1D tells a different story: MACD crossing up from -58/-60, RSI 39.8 back over its 36.5 average, CMF positive at +1.36. The weekly frame stays constructive (MACD +46.3, +DI 27.7 over -DI 16.4, CMF +8.1) but ADX 16.4 leaves the trend unconfirmed.

Previous calls: our Nov-3 24-hour bearish-lean hold missed, as the 2307–2349 confluence broke upward with the higher frame supportive; the 48-hour map scored partial, its band top crossed mid-window before the flush returned price to base. Two lessons logged: fading strength into resistance is low-conviction when the daily/weekly structure is supportive, and 48-hour bands must stretch to roughly 1.5x daily ATR once volatility doubles.

Our map now: the 2156–2168 daily/weekly MA floor cluster is the line bulls defend, 2204.75 is the intraday pivot, 2283–2285 is the first supply test, and 2353–2364 is the five-MA wall where first attempts fade per our confluence rule. We weight stabilization at 42%, a floor-cluster break at 33%, and an early reclaim at 25% over 24 hours; over 48 hours the split moves to 45/30/25. No chasing until money flow turns positive on the 6H frame; size stays reduced while the daily trend direction remains contested.

ETHUSDT 24H and 48H forecast bands from 2,242.87: 24H stabilization 42%, floor-cluster break 33%, early reclaim 25%; 48H range repair 45%, deeper flush 30%, five-MA stack approach 25% — ETHUSDT 24H/48H forecast: stabilization 42%, floor-cluster break 33% — click to open full size in a new tab

BTCUSDT key levels: 78,191 floor and 80,416 resistance on 2H, 81,916 daily MA50 above, 76,056 daily support below — BTCUSDT levels: 78,000 line in the sand · 81,916 MA50 · 76,400 floor — click to open full size in a new tab

BTCUSDT 24H and 48H forecast bands from 78,824: 24H bear 32%, base 40%, bull 28%; 48H bear 35%, base 38%, bull 27% — BTCUSDT 24H/48H forecast: HOLD, defensive at both horizons — click to open full size in a new tab

AI Disclosure: This post was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The ideas, analysis, and opinions expressed are my own — AI was used to help compose, structure, and refine my personal notes and thoughts into the final written content. Images, videos and music featured in this post were also generated using AI tools, based on my own creative prompts and direction.

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