Ethereum has staged a sharp rebound from the 2405 floor, climbing back to the 2545 area over the past two sessions. Our prior session’s 24H short call was a miss — instead of holding the breakdown toward the 2405-2440 band, price bounced off the 2405.79 low and rallied roughly 5.8% into the 2520-2560 bull band. That was a lesson in respecting a deeply oversold daily Stochastic and a weekly frame that remains structurally bullish even when intraday momentum looked broken.
Today the picture is more nuanced. The intraday frames of 2H, 4H and 6H show powerful directional momentum, with ADX above 50 on all three and +DI far above -DI, yet that strength is arriving on overbought Stochastic readings (4H K at 90.9, 6H K at 92.9) and, crucially, on negative Chaikin Money Flow across the 6H, 12H and daily frames. That is the classic distribution signal our rules flag: a rally climbing on weak money flow is a hot-air balloon, and we expect it to deflate at the 2557-2572 resistance cluster where the daily ma50, the 12H ma100 and the 4H ma45 converge.
The weekly frame remains the anchor of the larger trend, with MACD strongly positive and CMF at +12.95, but price is capped below the weekly ma90 at 2667.9, and the US CPI print lands on October 14. That event is a real swing risk for risk assets, and we are deliberately cautious into it. The rebound is overbought and unsupported on the higher frames, so we favour a HOLD with a bearish lean, fading the 2557-2572 zone and waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger position. The market is sitting right at a decision point, and the next 48 hours will tell us whether the rebound has real legs or is simply a bounce within a larger corrective structure. A clean daily close above 2572 with rising CMF would change our view.
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