Solana has spent another session locked in the 116-122 corridor, closing around 117.8 after a modest 0.2% dip. Our analysis yesterday flagged a conflict zone: the intraday frames showing distribution while the higher timeframes remain firmly bullish. That tension is exactly what played out. The 24H HOLD call we issued on the 28th was validated — price never broke out of the 115-119 base band, closing at 119.07. Our 48H conditional long also came close; support at 114-115 held as expected, and price spiked to 122.82, but it failed to hold the 120-125 bull band and settled back at 118.07, so we mark it partial. The lesson is that a touched target is not a held target — intraday wicks into a zone don’t count until the close confirms it.
Today the picture is unchanged at the macro level. The daily and weekly frames still carry confirmed uptrends, with ADX at 43 and 39 respectively and strongly positive CMF, which tells us genuine accumulation rather than short covering. But the weekly StochRSI is pinned near 96, deeply overbought, and the 12H and 6H StochRSI readings are near zero, which means the near-term is squeezed between overbought and oversold. Intraday CMF is negative across 2H, 4H, and 6H, a distribution warning that tempers any bullish impulse.
Tomorrow brings the US Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate, a high-importance macro event, and that raises uncertainty around any directional bet. Our stance is to stay patient. We lean toward a conditional long on a confirmed support hold at 114-115 with positive CMF above 6H, targeting 120-125, but we are reducing size and waiting for the jobs print to clear the air. A clean close above 120 would confirm the bull band; a break below 115 opens the 110-114 zone. For now the corridor is the story, and discipline beats prediction.
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