Bitcoin Bounce Meets the Wall at 61,200 — Weekly Maximum Bearish Conviction Holds the Line – 2026 07 01

Bitcoin is trading at $60,141.7 as of July 1st, 2026, and if you’ve been following our analysis over the past two weeks, you’ll recognize this is the moment the relief bounce has arrived at exactly the resistance zone we identified. Comparing today’s price action to our June 29th analysis, the bounce from the weekly low of $57,755.8 has now reached the 4H MA#1 cluster at $60,236 — a zone that has been our primary short entry target since the June 20 report.

The 2-hour chart tells the exhaustion story. Stoch RSI is at K=100.00 and D=89.34 — extreme overbought conditions that have historically preceded short-term tops in bear cycles. The MACD has crossed bullish (Line -28.2 > Signal -203.9, Histogram +175.7), but this is happening below zero and within an overbought SRSI context — a textbook bull trap setup. The 2H ADX at 28.9 with +DI just barely leading at 23.58 vs -DI 19.04 suggests the bullish momentum is fading fast. The 2H CMF at 0.15 is the only indicator still showing genuine buying pressure, and even that is at the edge of distribution.

The 4-hour and 6-hour timeframes confirm the exhaustion pattern. On 4H, ADX is at 44.96 with -DI dominating +DI at 23.48 vs 15.69 — the trend is decisively down despite the bounce. The 4H MA#1 at $60,236 is the immediate resistance, with price currently sitting just 95 points below it. The 6H has price well below all MAs (60,144 vs MA#1 at 60,879), confirming the bounce is losing steam.

The daily chart is where the bear thesis is anchored. ADX at 38.11 with -DI at 27.83 crushing +DI at just 10.24 — a 2.72x ratio that defines a strong bearish trend. The 1D CMF at -0.01 confirms distribution. The 1D MA#1 sits at 66,389, which is 6,208 points above current price — a chasm that the bounce cannot bridge in 24-48 hours.

The weekly chart is the conclusive evidence. Per lessons learned we are in “Maximum Bearish Conviction” territory: price is 9,409 points below the nearest weekly MA, weekly K at 9.62 (extreme oversold but not yet a reversal signal in distribution), -DI at 30.61 vs +DI at 12.77 (2.4x ratio), RSI 33.75 below MA 40.68. There is no weekly support or resistance visible — the only critical pivot is the weekly low at $57,755.8. Per lesson learned, a break of this weekly low triggers immediate repricing to the $54,000-$56,000 macro zone.

Our stance: SHORT on bounces into the $61,200-$61,900 zone, with stops above $62,700. Targets are $58,500, then the weekly low at $57,755, then $54,000-$56,000 if the weekly low breaks. Capital preservation is the priority — let the market tell you which path to take.

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