Bitcoin’s Bear Market Continuation — The Bounce Has Failed, Lower Prices Loom – 2026 06 29

BTC trades $59,795 on June 29, capping an 8-week collapse from May's $80,086 highs — a brutal -25.7% decline. Yesterday's green candle was completely erased today, the textbook dead cat bounce failure. Weekly MACD sits at -6,209 with -DI dominating +DI by 2.37x. Daily Stochastic RSI at K=8.16 and weekly at K=8.65 scream oversold — yet weekly CMF at -0.09 remains in distribution. In our knowledge stack, this combination historically signals continuation, not reversal. Smart money is selling every bounce. Base case sees $59,000 test; bear case envisions $54,000-55,000. Will the weekly low at $58,850 hold, or trigger another cascade?
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