Bitcoin’s Bear Market Continuation — The Bounce Has Failed, Lower Prices Loom – 2026 06 29

Bitcoin trades around 59,795 this Monday, capping a brutal 8-week decline that has shed roughly 25.7% from the 80,086 highs of May 7th. This is not a market at a crossroads — this is a market on a one-way street, and the sign clearly reads “lower”. While the daily and weekly structures scream bearish continuation, the short-term timeframes generated weak bullish MACD crossovers over the past 24-48 hours, and we have seen how deceptive these signals can be within an entrenched downtrend.

The pattern unfolding this week is textbook dead cat bounce failure. Yesterday’s session closed +0.41% (+245.3) on a weekly candle basis, suggesting the first attempt at a relief bounce. Today’s close at 59,791.8 represents -0.37% (-222.0) from yesterday’s open, completely reversing the bounce attempt in a single session. Both daily and weekly candles now show price closing at or below the opening of the prior day — the definition of failed bounce in a bear market.

The macro structure could not be more bearish. The weekly MACD sits at -6,209 with -DI at 30.84 dominating +DI at 12.99 by a factor of 2.37 — this is a strong bearish trend that has not shown any signs of reversing despite the oversold readings on the short-term charts. Price is trading 10,000-21,000 points below every single weekly moving average, with the nearest structural resistance (Weekly MA #1 at 69,563) sitting nearly 10,000 points overhead.

The most important warning signal is the combination of extreme oversold readings with negative money flow. The daily Stochastic RSI at K=8.16 and weekly at K=8.65 represent the most oversold readings on the board, yet the weekly CMF at -0.09 remains in distribution. In our knowledge , this combination has historically been a continuation signal, not a reversal trigger. Smart money is selling into every oversold bounce. The 4-hour CMF at +0.34 looked briefly encouraging, but at this stage of the cycle it is more likely a dead cat bounce artifact than genuine accumulation.

Our prediction for the next 24-48 hours calls for continued downside. The base case sees price testing the 59,000 grid level, with the bear case envisioning a break below toward 57,000-58,000 then 54,000-55,000. The only meaningful bullish setup would be a 3-5 day squeeze toward the 61,000-62,000 zone, which we would treat as a high-probability short entry rather than a trend reversal. The 2H MA #1 at 60,269 offers an initial short level; the 4H MA #1 at 61,077 offers a stronger one. Stops should be placed above 62,372 on a swing-high basis, with first targets at 58,000 then 55,000.

The lesson learned is unambiguous: in strong weekly downtrends with extreme short-term oversold readings and negative weekly CMF, oversold does not equal reversal. The 2018 and 2022 BTC bear markets both featured extended oversold periods that preceded further downside. We maintain a confident SHORT bias with the recognition that the market has already moved 25%+ from peak, but the structure still favors lower prices. Patience in execution matters: enter on relief bounces into lower-timeframe MA resistance, with stops defined by swing-high structure rather than MA levels that often get left behind in momentum regimes.

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