Our analysis opens with yesterday’s call, and honesty matters here. On 5 October we published a HOLD at 121.73, with a base band of 120-123 and a bull band of 124-127. Price behaved almost exactly as scripted: SOL oscillated between 118.84 and 122.09 through 6 October and closed that session near 120.71, inside the base band, never touching the bull zone. Verdict: hit. The lesson we carry forward is that when the daily CMF is positive but every intraday CMF is negative, the range holds and the trend does not extend.
Today the picture has changed. SOL closed at 115.94, down 3.90%, breaking the 118.90-120.70 shelf that had held since late September. Prices now sit below all four 2H moving averages (119.23-119.76), and the 2H DMI has flipped hard: +DI 5.13 against -DI 42.73 with ADX at 40.64, a genuinely confirmed downtrend rather than noise. CMF is negative on the 2H, 4H, 6H and 12H, so this is distribution, not a shakeout. Support now sits at 115.28, the session low, with the 12H moving average at 114.25 behind it. The 4H and 6H StochRSI readings are pinned at extremes (1.30/1.77 and 0.00/4.75), which is the one caution against chasing shorts.
What has not changed is the macro. The daily still prints +DI 24.36 over -DI 14.11 with ADX 40.76 and CMF at +16.13; the weekly holds +DI 34.80, CMF +16.92 and ADX 41.25. Our analysis reads this as a bullish trend in a sharp correction, not a trend reversal. The floor we watch is the daily moving average at 107.27.
For the next 24 hours we stay neutral: base case 115-118 at 40%, bear 111-114 at 35%, bull 119-122 at 25%, with reduced size in this conflict zone. Beyond that, we want a hold of 114-115 with positive 6H CMF before committing long.
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AI Disclosure: This post was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The ideas, analysis, and opinions expressed are my own — AI was used to help compose, structure, and refine my personal notes and thoughts into the final written content. Images, videos and music featured in this post were also generated using AI tools, based on my own creative prompts and direction.
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