Our analysis yesterday pegged ETH as a hold around the 2683-2710 base, and that is exactly how it played out. The 24-hour close settled at 2705, inside our base band, so that call was a clean hit. The 48-hour conditional long we set at 2683 came back partial. Price did retest that support, but instead of pushing through to our 2710-2749 target it rejected down and closed at 2667 on the next session. It never broke the lower 2560-2639 band either, so a partial verdict is the honest read. One lesson: when the weekly StochRSI is pinned at 100, a long from a mid-range support retest rarely delivers the full bullish band. Respect the overbought ceiling.
Today ETH trades at 2687 after spiking to 2777 and getting slapped back. That rejection near the 2800 wall, flagged in the news as heavy futures activity and net outflows, tells us the ceiling is real. The daily ADX at 39 and the weekly at 42 confirm a strong macro uptrend, and the daily CMF is positive, so the longer-term accumulation story holds. But on the 2H, 4H and 6H frames, CMF is negative. That is distribution on the short term, the hot-air-balloon warning we keep watching. Add the weekly StochRSI at 100, and the signal is clear: the macro is bullish, but the short term is overbought and prone to chop.
Our stance for the next 24 hours is hold in the 2664-2710 base, with a bear band at 2639-2664 and a bull band at 2710-2737. For 48 hours, we lean toward a conditional long if 2683 holds, targeting the 2710-2777 zone, but we will not chase it into the 2800 wall. If the 2639 floor breaks, the short-term distribution wins and we stand aside.
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AI Disclosure: This post was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The ideas, analysis, and opinions expressed are my own — AI was used to help compose, structure, and refine my personal notes and thoughts into the final written content. Images, videos and music featured in this post were also generated using AI tools, based on my own creative prompts and direction.
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