BTC closed the session at 82,490, roughly 700 lower than our 10-07 reference of 83,180, and the pullback has carried price below every fast moving average on the 2H, 4H and 6H charts. This is not a trend break — the daily and weekly structures remain intact with ADX at 32 and 41 and price still above the daily 50-period MA near 80,700 — but it is a clear momentum cool-off that we had flagged.
Our previous 10-05 call for a 48-hour long above 87,242 never triggered; instead bitcoin broke down through the 84,500 support cluster and settled at 82,490. That was a miss. The overbought weekly StochRSI (RL-01) and the fading intraday money flow (RL-08) were the warnings we underweighted when we leaned bullish. Our 10-07 defensive hold, by contrast, was validated: price drifted into the lower band rather than rallying, and staying flat protected capital.
Today the picture is mixed. The 6H Chaikin money flow prints -22.6, a clear distribution signal, and -DI dominates on the 6H and 12H frames, so intraday supply is real. But the 2H and 4H MACD histograms have turned positive, the 12H and daily StochRSI are deeply oversold (K near 4.5), and the weekly CMF remains positive at +7.5. The wider trend stays constructive, so we are not calling a top, but we also will not assume the dip is over until buyers return. We are watching the 80,700 daily support and the 84,500 broken support as the two levels that decide the next move.
For the next 24 hours we hold — reducing size in this conflict zone. A reclaim of 84,500 with rising CMF would set up a measured long toward 85,500, while a break of 80,700 would open the 79,000 area. We are patient and will not chase this chop.
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