Solana’s 100.3 shelf finally broke — here is where our focus sits now.
Last session we leaned on the 100.3 shelf as the key support and framed a conditional long above it. That shelf did not hold. Price opened near 102.38 and within a single session flushed to a 94.77 low before closing 95.58. Our 24H HOLD call was a miss — we expected a base-band 100-103 hold and instead got a violent -6.7% break. Our 48H conditional long was also a miss, since its trigger (100.3-101 holding) was invalidated the moment price sliced through the shelf and later touched 92.24. The lesson is one we keep repeating: with daily CMF negative and the daily ADX at 43.6, an oversold StochRSI is not a buy signal — it is a warning that short-covering can be ruthless.
Today SOL trades near 95.32, down from 102.27 at our last read. The picture is unambiguously bearish across the intraday and daily frames. MACD is below signal on the 4H, 6H, 12H and 1D, -DI dominates on all of those, and CMF is negative on every frame from 2H through daily — the distribution signal. The weekly macro remains the only bright spot, with CMF positive at +13.07 and +DI dominant at 29.69.
We are not chasing this down. Daily RSI at 30.0 and StochRSI K at 5.77 are deeply oversold, which raises the risk of a sharp relief bounce that would punish late shorts. So we hold, with a bearish bias, and wait for one of two signals: a clean rejection at the 97.99-98.04 resistance cluster to justify a short, or a daily CMF turn positive to justify a bounce back toward the broken shelf at 100.3.
Support sits at 92.24 (recent low) then 89.79 (daily MA150) and 88.81 (daily MA200). Resistance is stacked at 97.99 and 98.04. The next 48 hours should tell us whether this is a healthy pullback within a macro uptrend or the start of a deeper correction. We remain disciplined and patient.
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AI Disclosure: This post was created with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The ideas, analysis, and opinions expressed are my own — AI was used to help compose, structure, and refine my personal notes and thoughts into the final written content. Images, videos and music featured in this post were also generated using AI tools, based on my own creative prompts and direction.
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