Bitcoin has had a volatile 24 hours. We watched price slide under the 80,000 handle to a swing low near 79,750 after US wholesale prices jumped 1.3%, the sharpest gain in four years, which pushed rate expectations higher and hit risk assets. The sell-off flushed roughly $932 million in liquidations, and then a short squeeze of about $1 billion snapped price back up to near 82,400 by the time we wrote this. Our analysis keeps the conviction deliberately light. The bounce feels like short-covering, not accumulation.
The lower timeframes confirm it: the 2H CMF is a heavy -20.7, the 6H is -16.5, the 12H is -10.7, and the daily is -12.5, all distributing even as price recovers. That is the hot-air-balloon signature we have learned to respect, and it is why we are not chasing this push. On the weekly frame the structure remains constructive, with the ADX at 42.5 and the weekly CMF a healthy +11.9, and price still sits above all of its daily moving averages. But the daily MACD histogram is -520 and the daily ADX is only 23.6, so there is no confirmed trend on the day.
Our previous call from October 11 was a defensive 48H HOLD, and it came in a hit: price stayed inside our base band 81,500-84,200 through the horizon, closing 81,808 on October 12 and 83,137 on October 13, and the conditional long trigger on a 84,500 reclaim was never met. The lesson is that respecting the CMF distribution over the headline bounce keeps us out of trouble. The calls we set on October 14 remain open and we will judge them when their horizon closes. For the next 24 hours we are HOLD, sizing down 20-30%, watching 82,700-83,400 as overhead, 81,200 as the first support and 79,750 as the floor. Only a reclaim of 84,100 with a positive daily CMF turns us constructive.
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