Ethereum has spent another session grinding lower, and our analysis sees the bearish higher-frame structure holding firm even as the short-term tape tries to stabilise. Price sits near $2,392, below the $2,405 floor that we flagged on Wednesday and well under every intraday moving average we track. The daily picture is the loudest: MACD is deeply below its signal line, the daily ADX has confirmed the trend at 40.7, and the Chaikin Money Flow is printing a heavy -15.1 distribution reading. That is the hot-air balloon warning we keep repeating — a rally without real money-flow backing tends to deflate, and right now there is no rally at all, just a grind lower.
Looking back at our last session, we held a bearish-lean HOLD from $2,458. Our 48-hour call closed in the bear band at $2,401, which lands as a clean hit, while the 24-hour call and the earlier 48-hour call both settled as partials because price dipped into the bear zone but recovered to close in the base band. The lesson is that leaning bearish on this distribution structure was the right read, but the oversold daily reading keeps giving us sharp, short-lived bounces that stop us from calling a straight breakdown.
Today we are leaning SHORT with the $2,315 fresh low as the key bear target on the 24-hour horizon, and the deeper $2,276-2,315 weekly-support zone on 48 hours. The bull case is a reclaim above $2,405 toward the $2,415-2,455 resistance, but the confirmed ADX and distribution say that is the lower-probability path. The weekly frame remains bullish and is the only thing capping how far we think this falls, so we are not chasing a collapse either.
Next steps: watch the $2,366 and $2,405 levels for a decisive close. We are sized for a short but not over-committed, and we will step back if the daily StochRSI, already at 1.3, starts curling up.
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