Bitcoin Ends Q1 2026 Under Pressure — Bears Maintain Structural Control. 2026 03 31

Bitcoin closes out the first quarter of 2026 at roughly $66,840, a sobering snapshot for those who had hoped the mid-March rally to $73,530 marked the beginning of something more durable. It did not. What we witnessed between March 9th and March 16th was a textbook counter-trend bounce inside a dominant weekly downtrend — and today’s price action is the receipt for that misread.

Looking at where we stand versus our most recent analyses, the trajectory has been consistent with our bearish structural read. The weekly ADX is holding above 36 with -DI firmly in command at 27.42, and RSI on the weekly frame sits at a sobering 33.03. These are not ambiguous readings. They tell us clearly that the larger trend remains down, and short-term momentum recoveries — however energetic — are operating against the current.

What stands out today across all six timeframes is the universal positioning of price beneath the entire MA ribbon. Not one moving average has been reclaimed. The 2H MA#1 sits at 67,202, the 4H at 67,855, the daily at 71,058, and the weekly EMA-15 at 75,764. Every attempted rally has a ceiling overhead, and each one gets lower. The 6H CMF at -0.11 and weekly CMF at -0.17 confirm that this is not passive weakness — money is actively moving out.

There is one technical nuance worth watching over the next 24 hours: the daily Stoch RSI K (12.10) has crossed above D (5.53) from extreme oversold territory. History tells us this can generate a 1–2 day bounce, perhaps back toward the 67,000–67,500 zone. We will not be chasing that. Our bias remains short on any push toward MA#1 resistance. Until CMF turns decisively positive on the 4H and 6H, and until price reclaims at least the 2H MA ribbon, any upside is noise inside a bear structure.

Q1 2026 closes with Bitcoin down significantly from its peaks. The question for Q2 is whether the 65,750 weekly low holds or becomes the launching pad for the next leg lower.

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