Solana Testing Critical Support as Bearish Pressure Intensifies

Our October thirtieth forecast for Solana proved remarkably accurate as price action unfolded precisely as anticipated over the past twenty-four hours. Yesterday we identified the one hundred ninety dollar zone as vulnerable resistance with downside risk toward one hundred eighty dollars materializing if momentum failed to break overhead moving average clusters. Today price sits at one hundred eighty-six seventy-seven after touching as low as one hundred eighty-three fifty-two during the session, confirming the weakness we highlighted in yesterday’s technical analysis.

The bearish structure we warned about has intensified across multiple timeframes with price now trapped below every significant moving average on intraday charts. What appeared yesterday as potential consolidation has transformed into decisive downward momentum with the four-hour and twelve-hour timeframes showing particularly aggressive selling pressure. Our identification of the one hundred ninety-one to one hundred ninety-four dollar resistance zone as critical for any reversal attempt continues holding firm as price repeatedly fails to reclaim even the nearest moving average at one hundred ninety-one forty-four.

Most concerning from a technical perspective is the money flow deterioration we’re observing. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has shifted decidedly negative on shorter timeframes dropping from marginal readings yesterday to clearly bearish territory today, signaling increased distribution and seller dominance. Meanwhile the Relative Strength Index remains pinned below fifty across all relevant timeframes with downward sloping moving averages providing additional confirmation of weakening momentum.

Looking ahead to the next forty-eight hours, we maintain our bearish bias with high conviction. The weekly chart reveals price now testing the critical thirty-period moving average at one hundred eighty-six sixty-seven, which served as strong support throughout the recent consolidation phase. Loss of this level opens the door to one hundred seventy-nine ninety-six where the forty-five-period weekly moving average awaits, with one hundred seventy presenting a psychological barrier along the way despite lacking moving average support at that precise level.

Our base case scenario assigns forty-five percent probability to continued consolidation between one hundred eighty-four and one hundred eighty-nine dollars as market participants digest the recent decline before determining next direction. However we see forty percent probability of extended weakness testing the one hundred eighty dollar zone with potential continuation toward one hundred seventy-five if selling accelerates. Only fifteen percent probability exists for meaningful reversal in the immediate term given the unanimous bearish signal alignment across momentum oscillators and trend-following indicators.

For traders, resistance at one hundred ninety-four dollars represents the line in the sand. Any sustained break above that level with accompanying volume would force reassessment of the bearish thesis, but until proven otherwise the path of least resistance remains decidedly downward. Risk management remains paramount in current conditions as oversold readings on weekly Stochastic RSI suggest potential for sharp counter-trend moves even within the broader downtrend framework.

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