Solana’s Correction Eyes a Reflexive Bounce Within a Weekly Uptrend

A comprehensive multi-timeframe review of Solana reveals a compelling technical narrative defined by a conflict between short-term bearish momentum and a resilient long-term uptrend, suggesting the current downturn is a corrective phase rather than a structural trend reversal. An analysis of the intraday charts, from the two-hour to the twelve-hour, paints a clear picture of bearish control. Across these lower timeframes, the price action is decidedly weak, with price trading consistently below bearishly stacked DEMA lines. This visual weakness is confirmed by a suite of indicators: the MACD on the 4H, 6H, and 12H charts is firmly in negative territory with bearish signal line crosses, while the DMI shows a dominant negative directional index (-DI), reflecting strong seller conviction. This alignment presents a formidable headwind against any immediate bullish aspirations and underscores the risk of further downside.

However, the daily timeframe introduces significant nuance, shifting the outlook from purely bearish to “weak-bearish with a notable risk of a bounce.” While indicators like the RSI have fallen below the neutral 50 mark and the MACD histogram is negative, a critical detail lies in the MACD lines themselves, which remain in positive territory. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) continues to register a positive value, indicating that despite the recent price drop, accumulation is still present. This divergence, where price-based momentum indicators weaken while a volume-based one holds firm, often precedes a sharp reflexive rally.

This potential for a bounce is most strongly supported by the weekly chart, which firmly frames the current price action as a correction. Here, the primary trend indicators remain staunchly bullish. The weekly MACD is well into positive territory with the MACD line comfortably above its signal line, and the DMI continues to show a bullish posture. With the weekly CMF also remaining positive, the foundational structure of the uptrend appears intact. The current price dip, when viewed in this context, is a test of this structure.

Based on the analysis, the key zone to watch for this bounce to materialize is between $210 and $214. A successful defense of this level could propel the price toward the next significant resistance at $220, a break of which would lend strong confirmation to the corrective bounce theory. Given Solana’s history of high-velocity moves, any such turn could be rapid.

Therefore, the current market presents a complex but clear scenario: while the intraday trend remains bearish, the resilient higher-timeframe structure suggests a bounce is increasingly likely, demanding a disciplined but alert trading approach.

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