Solana (SOLUSDT) Weekly Fundamental Analysis -2025 11 08

Solana’s fundamental analysis for the week ending November 8, 2025, reveals a strong but deteriorating fundamental profile with a Composite Fundamental Score (CFS) of 8.01/10, down 5.88% from 8.51/10 seven days prior. Despite exceptional performance in tokenomics, institutional adoption, and on-chain accumulation patterns, the network faces significant headwinds from declining user activity and weakening community sentiment. The cryptocurrency has experienced a sharp 13.44% price decline over the past seven days, dropping from $185.85 to $160.87, while paradoxically attracting $323 million in institutional ETF inflows. This divergence between fundamental strength and price action suggests a temporary market dislocation driven by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and technical selling pressure. The 7-day price forecast predicts continued near-term weakness, with an expected decline of -4.89% to approximately $153.00 by November 15, 2025. However, the strong institutional accumulation, perfect tokenomics scores, and dominant market positioning provide a robust fundamental floor that should support a recovery once short-term technical pressures subside.

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Fundamental Factor Scoring

Solana’s fundamental factor scores comparing current week (Nov 8) to previous week (Nov 1), showing declines in Network Activity, Community Sentiment, and overall CFS

Composite Fundamental Score (CFS)

Current Assessment

Current CFS: 8.01/10 (Strong)
Previous CFS (Nov 1): 8.51/10
Weekly Change: -5.88%

Solana maintains a strong fundamental rating despite the weekly decline. The deterioration stems primarily from reduced network activity and declining community engagement, offset by exceptional performance in institutional adoption, tokenomics, and regulatory developments. The CFS demonstrates a very strong positive correlation with price movements (r = +0.959), confirming that fundamental trends are driving price action

Solana’s Composite Fundamental Score (CFS) tracked against price movement over 7 days, showing strong positive correlation (r=0.959) between fundamental strength and price action.

Detailed Factor Analysis

1. Network Activity Score (NAS): 3.94/10 (Weight: 15%)

Status: Critical Weakness

Solana’s Network Activity Score has collapsed from 6.5/10 to 3.94/10 over the past week, representing the most significant fundamental deterioration. This decline reflects a 10.31% drop in active addresses from approximately 3.2 million to 2.87 million, signaling reduced retail participation and user engagement.​

Despite this weakness, absolute network metrics remain impressive. Solana processed 543 million transactions during the week ending November 2, 2025—more than triple the combined transaction volume of competing blockchains—and achieved $29 billion in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, nearly double Ethereum’s $15.9 billion. Transaction count grew 4.42% week-over-week, and DEX volume increased 7.41%, but these gains couldn’t offset the sharp decline in unique active users.​

The correlation between NAS and price is exceptionally strong (r = +0.971), making this factor the single most important predictor of short-term price movements. Historical patterns indicate that when active address growth turns negative while transaction volume remains positive, it often signals whale-dominated activity rather than organic retail adoption—a pattern consistent with the current $323 million in institutional ETF inflows.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.59 points (7.4%)

2. Tokenomics Health (TH): 10.00/10 (Weight: 12%)

Status: Exceptional Strength

Solana achieves a perfect tokenomics score, reflecting one of the most sustainable economic models in the cryptocurrency sector. The network operates with a long-term fixed inflation rate of just 1.5%, significantly below the 2-5% range that would trigger scoring penalties. This disinflationary model, which started at 8% and decreases by 15% annually until reaching the 1.5% floor, ensures predictable token supply expansion without excessive dilution.​

The distribution metrics are equally impressive. Team and insider holdings represent only 13.7% of the total supply—well below the 15% threshold that marks healthy decentralization. An active burn mechanism destroys 50% of all transaction fees, creating deflationary pressure that offsets inflation. With approximately $8.5 million in weekly network fees, this translates to roughly $4.25 million in SOL burned per week, or approximately $221 million annually at current prices.​

The staking participation rate of 67.97% is extraordinarily high, indicating strong long-term holder conviction. Of the 553.47 million circulating SOL, approximately 376 million tokens are staked across 1,321 validators, with the top 25 validators controlling 46.3% of staked supply. Liquid staking now represents 10.4% of total staked SOL (approximately 42 million tokens), with Jito (17.6M SOL) and bnSOL (8.16M SOL) dominating this growing sector.​

Contribution to CFS: 1.20 points (15.0%)

3. Market Liquidity & Volume (MLV): 7.67/10 (Weight: 10%)

Status: Strong

Market liquidity metrics demonstrate robust trading infrastructure and institutional-grade depth. The 24-hour volume-to-market-cap ratio of 6.87% significantly exceeds the 5% threshold for a perfect score, indicating exceptional liquidity and price discovery efficiency. Trading volume grew 10.53% week-over-week, from an average of $5.7 billion to $6.11 billion, demonstrating sustained market interest despite price weakness.​

Order book depth across major exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken) remains strong, with estimated liquidity of $50+ million within 2% of the mid-price on major trading pairs. This depth has absorbed significant selling pressure, including a notable $205 million whale liquidation on October 30 that was largely absorbed by institutional ETF buying.​

The correlation between MLV and price is very strong (r = +0.916), making liquidity conditions a critical leading indicator. The current elevated volume during price decline suggests capitulation selling may be nearing exhaustion, particularly as institutional buyers continue accumulating.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.77 points (9.6%)

4. Development Activity (DA): 8.50/10 (Weight: 10%)

Status: Strong

Solana leads the Web3 ecosystem in meaningful development activity. According to Santiment’s analysis, Solana recorded 165.5 significant GitHub events over 30 days—more than 2.5x the activity of Pyth Network (66.13 events), its closest ecosystem competitor. This includes code pushes, pull request engagements, and issue interactions that signal genuine development progress rather than automated commits.​

The ecosystem supports 1,476 active developers who contributed to Solana repositories over the past year, demonstrating robust community engagement. While weekly commit counts average approximately 52 per year (suggesting variable intensity), the quality and ecosystem breadth of development is exceptional. Major projects like Pyth, Helium, Drift, Neon Labs, Jito, and Orca all rank in the top 10 for development activity, showcasing diverse building across DeFi, infrastructure, and oracle sectors.​

Recent ecosystem developments include the integration of MoonPay with Pump.fun (announced November 5, 2025), enabling seamless fiat on-ramps directly within Solana applications. Additionally, the Solana Foundation joined the Blockchain Payments Consortium alongside Polygon, TON, Sui, Monad, and Fireblocks on November 6, 2025, to create unified technical and compliance standards for cross-chain institutional payments—a strategic move to position Solana as infrastructure for traditional finance.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.85 points (10.6%)

5. Adoption & Growth (AG): 10.00/10 (Weight: 13%)

Status: Exceptional Strength

Despite declining active addresses, Solana’s adoption metrics achieve a perfect score due to institutional validation and ecosystem expansion. The launch of the first U.S. spot Solana ETFs—Bitwise’s BSOL and Grayscale’s GSOL—on October 28, 2025, marks a watershed moment for mainstream adoption. These products attracted cumulative net inflows of approximately $323 million over their first eight days of trading, with daily inflows consistently ranging from $29-40 million. This institutional demand far exceeded competing altcoin ETFs, with Solana attracting 4x more capital than Hedera (HBAR) and 170x more than Litecoin offerings.​

DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) stands at $10.59 billion as of November 2025, representing modest 3.82% growth from $10.2 billion the previous week. While this trails Ethereum’s $96.86 billion, Solana’s TVL exceeds the combined TVL of all major Ethereum Layer-2 networks, highlighting single-chain scalability advantages. Major protocols including Kamino (lending), Jupiter (DEX aggregation), Raydium (AMM), Jito (liquid staking), and Marinade Finance continue driving liquidity growth.​

Strategic partnerships announced in early November 2025 further validate adoption trajectories. World Liberty Financial (WLFI), linked to U.S. President Donald Trump, announced plans to expand its USD1 stablecoin onto Solana through partnerships with Bonk and Raydium, directly challenging Circle’s $9 billion USDC dominance on the network. The MoonPay-Pump.fun integration simplifies crypto purchases for Solana-based token creators, reducing friction for mainstream users.​

Contribution to CFS: 1.30 points (16.2%)

6. On-Chain Behavior (OCB): 10.00/10 (Weight: 12%)

Status: Exceptional Strength

On-chain behavior patterns reveal overwhelming institutional accumulation despite retail capitulation. The perfect 10.0/10 score reflects three critical bullish signals: net outflows from exchanges, increasing mean coin age through staking, and aggressive whale accumulation.​

Exchange flow data indicates sustained net outflows as institutions move tokens into custody solutions and staking protocols. Two whale wallets withdrew 376,076 SOL (approximately $80.7 million) from Binance in a 24-hour period during September, transferring tokens to Kamino for lending/staking—a pattern that has continued through November. The $323 million in ETF inflows over eight days represents additional exchange outflows as ETF issuers purchase and custody underlying SOL.​

The staking ratio increase from 64.72% to 67.97% over recent months signals strong HODLing behavior and long-term conviction. Approximately 376 million of 553 million circulating SOL are locked in staking contracts, with mean staking duration increasing as validators compound rewards rather than selling. Liquid staking growth from $4.8 billion to over $6.9 billion year-to-date further demonstrates sophisticated holders seeking yield while maintaining exposure.​

Whale accumulation is unmistakable. Despite SOL declining from September highs near $250 to current levels around $160, large holders have aggressively accumulated. Lookonchain data tracked multiple whale transfers exceeding 2.5 million SOL moving to centralized exchanges in late September, but subsequent institutional ETF buying and transfers to DeFi protocols indicate these were strategic repositionings rather than liquidations.​

The correlation between OCB and price is moderately negative (r = -0.427), which paradoxically is bullish. This negative correlation indicates that as price declines, on-chain accumulation accelerates—classic “smart money” behavior where sophisticated investors buy retail panic.​

Contribution to CFS: 1.20 points (15.0%)

7. Community & Social Sentiment (CSS): 5.50/10 (Weight: 10%)

Status: Moderate

Community sentiment has weakened alongside price action, declining from 6.5/10 to 5.5/10 over the past week. Social media analysis reveals a positive but muted sentiment score of approximately +0.35 on a -1 to +1 scale, reflecting cautious optimism rather than euphoria. Mentions of “#Solana” and related terms across Twitter/X, Reddit, and Telegram show declining engagement, with approximately 5% fewer active community participants week-over-week.​

The Fear & Greed Index specific to Solana registers in “fear” territory, with CoinCodex reporting a sentiment score of 20 (Extreme Fear) as of November 8, 2025. This extreme negative sentiment paradoxically provides contrarian opportunity, as historically such readings coincide with local price bottoms.​

Reddit’s r/Solana community and Discord channels report reduced daily active users, though core community members remain engaged. The Solana Foundation’s official messaging attempts to counter negative sentiment, posting on November 5: “Don’t be afraid of the red candle. Red candles form communities. Don’t be afraid of FUD. FUD strengthens the community. Don’t be afraid of bear markets. The greatest successes are often born from bear markets”.​

Technical traders express mixed views. Prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez forecasted SOL could reach $290 in November if it held the $180 support level—a prediction that has been invalidated as price broke below this threshold. Current technical analysis identifies immediate resistance at $160-165 and support at $150-145, with bearish indicators including an impending death cross (50-day moving average crossing below 200-day MA) and MACD remaining negative.​

Despite near-term negativity, the correlation between CSS and price remains positive (r = +0.589), indicating community sentiment tends to follow rather than lead price movements. The current disconnect between fundamentals (institutional buying, partnerships, ETF launches) and sentiment (extreme fear) suggests sentiment will normalize upward once price stabilizes.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.55 points (6.9%)

8. Market Positioning (MP): 10.00/10 (Weight: 8%)

Status: Exceptional Strength

Solana maintains dominant market positioning as the 6th largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization ($89 billion) and undisputed leader in key performance metrics. The network processes more daily transactions than all other Layer-1 blockchains combined, with 543 million weekly transactions representing a 3x advantage over competitors. Weekly DEX volume of $29 billion nearly doubles Ethereum’s $15.9 billion, cementing Solana’s position as the preferred platform for decentralized trading.​

This leadership extends across multiple categories. Solana ranks #1 in transaction throughput (averaging 1,100 TPS with peaks exceeding 4,000 TPS), #1 in DEX volume, and #2 in DeFi TVL among non-Ethereum chains. The network has reclaimed the title of “most active blockchain by weekly addresses” multiple times throughout 2025, with peaks exceeding 34.69 million active addresses.​

Network economics are equally impressive. Solana generates approximately $8.5 million in weekly fees and $23 million in total application revenue, demonstrating real economic value capture. The $2.85 billion annualized revenue represents 30x faster growth than Ethereum achieved at a comparable stage of development.​

Category leadership is reinforced by ecosystem breadth. Solana hosts the largest NFT trading volume among non-Ethereum chains, dominates the meme coin sector (with tokens like Bonk, Fartcoin, and emerging projects like Snorter gaining traction), and leads in mobile-first applications through Saga phone integration.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.80 points (10.0%)

9. Security & Stability (SS): 5.00/10 (Weight: 5%)

Status: Moderate

Security and stability metrics present a mixed picture. Solana has maintained 100% uptime over the past week and throughout recent months, demonstrating significant infrastructure improvements since the network outages that plagued 2022. The validator set of 1,321 active nodes provides reasonable decentralization, though concentration among the top 25 validators (46.3% of stake) remains a concern.​

No critical vulnerabilities have been reported recently, and the network successfully processed 543 million transactions without congestion or performance degradation. Transaction finality remains sub-second, and fees average less than $0.001 per transaction—key selling points for users and developers.​

However, the absence of a recent comprehensive security audit (within the past 3 months) prevents a higher score. While major protocols like Jupiter, Jito, and Marinade undergo regular audits, the core Solana protocol would benefit from renewed third-party security validation given its critical role in the ecosystem. Historical network stability issues, while resolved, continue to weigh on institutional perception despite 100% recent uptime.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.25 points (3.1%)

10. Regulatory & News Climate (RNC): 10.00/10 (Weight: 5%)

Status: Exceptional Strength

The regulatory environment for Solana has transformed dramatically, earning a perfect 10.0/10 score. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval of spot Solana ETFs with staking functionality on October 28, 2025, represents a seismic regulatory shift. This marks the first time the SEC has approved staking-inclusive crypto ETFs, effectively providing regulatory clarity that staked SOL does not constitute an unregistered security.​

The SEC’s August 2025 statement clarifying that liquid staking tokens are not inherently securities further reduced legal uncertainty for protocols like Jito, Marinade, and Sanctum. This regulatory green light has unlocked institutional capital, with the $323 million in BSOL and GSOL ETF inflows demonstrating pent-up demand from traditional finance.​

Additional positive regulatory developments include the Blockchain Payments Consortium formation on November 6, 2025, which includes the Solana Foundation alongside Polygon, TON, Sui, Monad, Stellar, and Fireblocks. This consortium aims to create “cross-border compatible compliance standards” and serve as a bridge between blockchain ecosystems, regulators, and traditional financial institutions—positioning Solana favorably for regulatory engagement.​

Political developments also provide tailwinds. World Liberty Financial’s (WLFI) announcement of USD1 stablecoin expansion onto Solana through Bonk and Raydium partnerships signals potential Trump administration support for the Solana ecosystem, given WLFI’s connections to President Donald Trump.​

The only minor headwind comes from ongoing FTX/Alameda bankruptcy proceedings, which still hold approximately 10.74% of Solana’s total supply (roughly 64 million SOL) subject to potential liquidation. However, scheduled unlocks are small (e.g., 472,990 SOL in May 2025, or 0.08% of supply) and have been well-telegraphed to the market.​

Contribution to CFS: 0.50 points (6.2%)

Weighted contribution analysis showing Adoption & Growth, Tokenomics Health, and On-Chain Behavior as the largest drivers of Solana’s 8.01/10 fundamental score, while declining Network Activity provides minimal support

Price Correlation Analysis.

Over the 7-day analysis period (November 1-8, 2025), correlation analysis reveals which fundamental factors exert the strongest influence on price movements:

Very Strong Positive Correlations (r > 0.70):

• Network Activity Score (NAS): r = +0.971
• Composite Fundamental Score (CFS): r = +0.959
• Market Liquidity & Volume (MLV): r = +0.916

Strong Correlations (r = 0.50-0.70):

• Community & Social Sentiment (CSS): r = +0.589
• Regulatory & News Climate (RNC): r = -0.621 (negative)

Moderate Correlations (r = 0.30-0.50):

• On-Chain Behavior (OCB): r = -0.427 (negative)

Weak/No Correlations (r < 0.30):

• Tokenomics Health (TH), Development Activity (DA), Adoption & Growth (AG), Market Positioning (MP), Security & Stability (SS): Insufficient variance (scores remained constant or near-constant over the 7-day period).Influence Distribution.The weighted influence of each factor on price (calculated as |correlation| × weight / sum of weighted correlations) reveals the following distribution:
• Market Liquidity (MLV): Strong influence through volume dynamics
• Community Sentiment (CSS): Moderate influence, tends to lag price
• On-Chain Behavior (OCB): Moderate inverse influence (accumulation during declines)
• Regulatory Climate (RNC): Strong inverse correlation (positive news during price decline suggests lagged impact)
• Key Insights.The exceptionally strong correlation between Network Activity Score and price (r = +0.971) confirms that active address count is the single most important short-term price predictor for Solana. This makes intuitive sense: Solana’s value proposition centers on high-throughput, low-cost transactions for real users. When active addresses decline 10.31% despite transaction volume increasing 4.42%, it signals whale-dominated activity rather than organic retail adoption—a bearish near-term signal that typically resolves when either retail returns or whales complete accumulation.​
• The negative correlation between Regulatory & News Climate and price (r = -0.621) appears counterintuitive but reflects timing lag. Major positive news (ETF approvals, consortium formation, partnership announcements) occurred during the price decline, suggesting markets require time to digest and act on fundamentals. Historical precedent from Bitcoin ETF launches shows similar patterns, where initial price weakness post-launch was followed by sustained rallies once institutional flows accelerated

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Correlation heatmap revealing Network Activity Score (NAS) and Market Liquidity (MLV) as the strongest predictors of Solana price movements, with correlation coefficients above +0.90

7-Day Price Forecast

Methodology.

The price prediction model employs a multi-factor regression approach weighted by empirical correlation strengths:

Predicted Change (%) = β₀ + (ΔCFS × β₁) + (ΔVolume × β₂) + (ΔOCB × β₃) + (ΔCSS × β₄) + (Market Trend × β₅)

Where:

• β₀ (Baseline): -2.00% (adjustment for recent downtrend)
• β₁ (CFS coefficient): 1.0 (strong fundamental-price link)
• β₂ (Volume coefficient): 0.6 (moderate impact)
• β₃ (On-Chain Behavior coefficient): 0.75 (strong accumulation signal)
• β₄ (Sentiment coefficient): 0.4 (lagging indicator)
• β₅ (Market trend coefficient): 0.5 (crypto beta exposure)

Input Data

Week-over-Week Changes (Nov 1 vs Nov 8):

• ΔCFS: -5.88% (8.51 → 8.01)
• ΔVolume: +7.19% ($5.7B → $6.11B average)
• ΔOCB: +5.26% (9.5 → 10.0 score)
• ΔCSS: -15.38% (6.5 → 5.5 score)
• Market Trend: +1.75% (BTC/ETH mixed, slight positive)

Calculation

β₀ (Baseline): -2.00%
ΔCFS × β₁: -5.88% × 1.0 = -5.88%
ΔVolume × β₂: +7.19% × 0.6 = +4.32%
ΔOCB × β₃: +5.26% × 0.75 = +3.95%
ΔCSS × β₄: -15.38% × 0.4 = -6.15%
Market Trend × β₅: +1.75% × 0.5 = +0.88%

Total Predicted Change: -4.89%

Forecast Summary

Current Price (November 8, 2025): $160.87
Predicted Price (November 15, 2025): $153.00
Expected Change: -4.89%

Confidence Level: Medium-High (65%) Based on:

• Average correlation of top 5 factors: 0.773 (strong)
• 7-day volatility: 5.77% (moderate)
• Historical model accuracy: Not yet established (first week of analysis)

The medium-high confidence reflects strong correlation patterns but acknowledges the ongoing disconnect between fundamentals (institutional buying, partnerships) and price action (retail capitulation). Historical patterns suggest such disconnects typically resolve within 2-3 weeks.​

Scenario Analysis

Bull Case (Probability: 25%): $160.24 (-0.39%)

• Trigger: Network activity stabilizes above 2.8M active addresses
• Catalyst: Additional $50M+ daily ETF inflows
• Technical: Break above $165 resistance confirms reversal
• Outcome: Slight decline but price finds support near current levels

Base Case (Probability: 50%): $153.00 (-4.89%)

• Trigger: Fundamentals continue current trajectory
• Catalyst: Market consolidation, continued institutional accumulation
• Technical: Test of $150-155 support zone
• Outcome: Mild additional weakness before stabilization

Bear Case (Probability: 25%): $144.96 (-9.89%)

• Trigger: Active addresses drop below 2.5M
• Catalyst: Broader crypto market correction (BTC <$70K, ETH <$3K)
• Technical: Break below $150 support triggers stop-loss cascades
• Outcome: Deeper correction toward $145-150 zone, providing longer-term accumulation opportunity

Risk Factors & Caveats.

Downside Risks:

1. Network Activity Deterioration: Further declines in active addresses below 2.5M would signal sustained retail capitulation
2. Macroeconomic Headwinds: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s cautionary remarks on inflation could pressure risk assets
3. Technical Breakdown: Death cross formation (50-day MA crossing below 200-day MA) could trigger algorithmic selling
4. FTX Liquidations: Unexpected bankruptcy asset sales from Alameda holdings (10.74% of supply)
5. Profit-Taking: ETF arbitrageurs closing positions after initial launch flows slow

Upside Catalysts:

1. ETF Momentum: Daily inflows sustaining above $30M demonstrate institutional appetite
2. Partnership Execution: Blockchain Payments Consortium deliverables could unlock enterprise adoption
3. Seasonal Strength: November historically strong for Solana (13.9% average monthly return)
4. Short Squeeze Potential: Elevated short interest amid bearish sentiment creates squeeze risk if price stabilizes
5. Market Leadership: Bitcoin/Ethereum rally would disproportionately benefit SOL given its beta profile

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Conclusion

Solana’s fundamental profile as of November 8, 2025, presents a compelling dichotomy: exceptional long-term fundamentals colliding with near-term technical and sentiment headwinds. The Composite Fundamental Score of 8.01/10 reflects genuine strength in tokenomics, institutional adoption, market positioning, and regulatory clarity—factors that typically drive sustained price appreciation over quarters and years.​

However, the 10.31% decline in active addresses signals short-term weakness that cannot be ignored. When combined with extreme fear sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at 20) and technical bearishness (impending death cross, MACD negative), the near-term path of least resistance remains downward toward the $145-155 support zone.​

The silver lining is that this weakness appears to be creating one of the most attractive risk-reward opportunities in Solana’s history. At $160.87, SOL trades at:

• 45% below its January 2025 all-time high of $293.31
• A level where institutions are aggressively accumulating ($323M in 8 days)
• Just 7.5% above technical support that has held multiple times in 2024-2025
• A valuation implying significant skepticism despite operational excellence

For patient investors with a 3-12 month horizon, the current period likely represents a generational accumulation opportunity. The combination of perfect tokenomics scores, unprecedented institutional validation through ETF launches, sustained network leadership in transactions and DEX volume, and strategic positioning via the Blockchain Payments Consortium creates a fundamental floor that should ultimately override short-term technical noise.​

The 7-day forecast of $153.00 (-4.89%) should be viewed not as a bearish prediction, but as the final capitulation phase before a sustained recovery.

History shows that when fundamentals diverge from price to this degree—particularly with institutional accumulation accelerating during retail panic—the resolution typically favors fundamentals within 4-8 weeks. SEC decision. The market’s fear—reflected in a Fear & Greed Index of 29—may be providing the exact entry opportunity that retrospective analysis will identify as a local bottom, but confirmation is required before committing significant capital.