Solana Sits at Critical Floor—Cycle Exhaustion Signals Suggest Imminent Bounce as Bears Lose Strength – 2025 29 12

Solana closed Monday at $123.86, testing the unified floor at $122.83 and entering a decisive 48-72 hour window where multiple cycle-timing indicators point to seller exhaustion rather than continued downside. This compressed structure creates a rare high-conviction opportunity for tactical traders who strictly respect risk parameters.

Compared with the December 22 outlook, where consolidation between 127-133 carried a 55% base probability and the bull case only 15%, price instead moved directly to the $122.83 floor—a breakeven scenario that was technically mapped but underweighted. This underscores how extreme oversold conditions, combined with cycle-timing exhaustion, can overpower raw momentum scores.

On the 2H chart, Stochastic RSI shows K at 15.11 and D at 38.44, levels where historical bounces typically occur within 24-48 hours. The 4H MACD has confirmed a bullish crossover with a positive histogram at 0.18, while the 6H MACD remains bullish even as Stochastic readings (K 57.82, D 79.21) signal a bearish cross that usually precedes consolidation or reversal as oscillators reset.

Falling ADX across timeframes, while -DI and +DI still appear dominant, signals trend exhaustion rather than strength. On the weekly chart, Stochastic RSI at 0.00 marks an extreme that historically resolves via capitulation or consolidation, but a weekly CMF near -0.03 implies weak, not panicked, selling, favoring floor building over breakdown.

Money flow supports the reversal thesis: 2H CMF at -0.08 has stabilized, 4H CMF at 0.01 is neutral, and 6H CMF at -0.03 is weakly negative but improving, a sequence that typically precedes tactical reversals as stabilization turns into positive flow. Watching for CMF flipping positive fits the cycle-timing view that momentum follows money flow.

Structural levels frame the trade: $120 is the absolute floor, with unified support at $122.83; immediate resistance lies at $124.42, then $128-130 where key moving averages cluster, and a confirmed break of $128.66 opens a path toward $138-140. The updated probability set is 35% bull, 50% consolidation at $122.5-126.5, and 15% bear, reflecting macro bearish structure but clear tactical exhaustion.

Within this 48-72 hour window, aggressive longs in the $120-122.50 zone can target $128, $135, or $140 with stops below $120 (around $118.50), preserving roughly 2% downside for 1:3 to 1:8 reward profiles. Confirmation traders can wait for a sustained 4H close above $124.93 or a 6H close above $126, while failed bounces into $124.42-128.66 offer short entries back toward $122-120 for those positioning for rejection.

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