Ethereum’s price action presents a captivating and high-stakes balancing act, with technical indicators painting a deeply divided picture across different timeframes. The market is currently witnessing a relief bounce, a technical reaction driven by bullish signals on shorter-term charts like the 2-hour and 4-hour. Here, MACD crossovers, positive money flow, and strengthening RSI suggest that buyers have found an attractive entry point following the recent downturn, sparking a fragile recovery. This nascent upward momentum, however, runs directly into a formidable wall of resistance established on the higher timeframes. The 6-hour, 12-hour, and particularly the daily charts remain entrenched in a bearish structure. Key moving averages, which failed to provide support during the decline, now loom overhead as significant barriers, threatening to cap the rally and reassert the prevailing downtrend. The sentiment, therefore, is one of tense conflict: short-term hope clashes with long-term headwinds.

The critical test for Ethereum’s bulls lies at the $4,200 resistance level. This price point has become the definitive line in the sand. A decisive and sustained break above this mark would serve as powerful confirmation that the bounce has substance, likely validating a broader trend reversal and opening the door to a more significant rally towards the $4,300–$4,500 region.

On the other hand, a rejection from this level would be equally telling, signaling that the bears remain in control and that the recent bounce was merely a temporary reprieve. Such a failure could see prices retreat swiftly back towards support around the $4,100 level or potentially even lower, resuming the prior corrective trend.

Zooming out, the weekly chart offers a beacon of hope for long-term holders, as its macro-bullish structure remains intact. This suggests the current market turmoil is a corrective phase within a larger, healthy uptrend. The ultimate question now is whether this is the moment the macro trend reasserts its dominance, or if the market requires one final capitulation before a durable bottom is finally forged and the next major leg up can begin.

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