This divergence between short-term panic and long-term institutional accumulation creates the foundation for sustainable recovery. Price sits comfortably above the ninety-period weekly moving average at three thousand forty-eight dollars, confirming this correction represents a buying opportunity within an intact bullish structure rather than a trend reversal.
Two weeks ago, we identified Bitcoin's correction as a textbook buying opportunity, specifically targeting the 103,000-104,000 zone as a strategic long entry point. That precise forecast has materialized with remarkable accuracy, as BTC now consolidates around 103,743, validating our earlier thesis about this price level's significance
Bitcoin's fundamental analysis reveals a MODERATE-STRONG rating (6.15/10) at a critical inflection point. The asset is testing the 85th percentile cost basis at $109,000—a "make-or-break" level that has historically determined near-term price direction. While core fundamentals remain robust (exceptional security, development, and on-chain accumulation), extreme fear sentiment (F&G Index: 29) and declining network activity have weakened the overall score by 11.52% week-over-week.
For traders, resistance at one hundred ninety-four dollars represents the line in the sand. Any sustained break above that level with accompanying volume would force reassessment of the bearish thesis, but until proven otherwise the path of least resistance remains decidedly downward
Looking ahead to Friday and into the weekend, we anticipate Ethereum faces a binary decision point where either support at $3,800 to $3,850 holds firm and enables a recovery attempt back toward the psychologically significant $4,000 level, or alternatively breaks down to test that critical $3,760 support with potential for cascading stops to push price toward $3,650 if panic selling emerges.
Our previous forecast anticipated consolidation with potential resistance rejection, and the market has indeed struggled to break decisively above the $112,200 resistance cluster formed by the four-hour and six-hour moving averages. The daily and weekly timeframes continue to present bearish signals with negative MACD readings and deteriorating directional movement, reinforcing our cautious stance.
Moving forward, we anticipate Solana will likely consolidate between 185 and 193 dollars over the next twenty-four hours as the market digests recent volatility. A sustained move above 199 dollars would confirm trend reversal, while a breakdown below 186 opens the door to testing the 179 to 180 support zone we highlighted as a more attractive accumulation area for patient long-term positioning.
If that zone gives way on a closing basis, the next logical targets fall to 3,700, 3,500, and possibly as deep as 3,350, as detailed by both current session lows and historic demand. However, pure trend analysis warns that the odds of a resounding recovery remain slim as long as moving averages continue to slope down and momentum indicators do not break back above their respective midlines.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin appears positioned for renewed upward momentum once current oversold conditions resolve. Support holds firm between $120,000-$121,500, with resistance targets at $124,000-$125,000 coming into focus. The convergence of oversold shorter timeframes and bullish longer timeframes creates an attractive risk-reward setup favoring longs
Solana demonstrates strong fundamental health with a Composite Fundamental Score (CFS) of 8.42/10, despite experiencing a -4.12% price decline over the past week ($189.89 → $182.07). The analysis reveals a divergence between robust on-chain fundamentals and short-term price pressure stemming from broader cryptocurrency market weakness, with Bitcoin down 18% from its peak and Ethereum down 25.7%.
