Bitcoin’s Technical Tug-of-War: Resistance vs Rejection – 2025 11 11

As the market unfolded today, Bitcoin’s behavior delivered not only validation for yesterday’s technical setup, but a test of patience and conviction for anyone tracking the deeper trend structure. Invoking both my macro-level scenario and intraday momentum reads, the key resistance and floor zones played out exactly as forecast in my earlier notes. The aggressive bounce in the two-hour chart this morning triggered a shallow corrective move rather than a new bullish impulse, confirming what the broader setup promised: strong headwinds for any rally, with true “macro resistance” dead ahead in the $102,000 to $103,000 band. Despite several oscillators flashing short-term oversold and short-lived attempts at reversal, bearish control quickly reasserted itself as expected, with DMI and ADX readings aligning to confirm a real weakening in buyer conviction. Multiple moving average arrangements stayed tilted bearish, and momentum indicators like MACD and RSI not only failed to break crucial levels, but provided extra confirmation as they slid deeper into negative territory across four- and six-hour periods.

My read on the market’s internal structure was sharpened by the clear trend on the twelve-hour and daily charts: failed breaks above fifty on the RSI, flattening MACD, and a CMF that briefly edged positive before flipping negative again as selling pressure mounted. The floor target at $102,000—set in my morning analysis—proved absolutely crucial, catching the bulk of the intraday action and now acting as a flashpoint for the next major directional choice. By the close, the price not only broke below several key exponential moving averages but also fulfilled the expectation for a full retest of deep weekly support as the broader macro bearish phase continued to mature, exactly as anticipated in my rolling two-week to one-month outlook.

Despite brief attempts to bounce, the rapid slide to $103,022 put every forecast scenario to the test and ultimately showed that listening to the macro signal, as indicated by the cluster of bearish readings across longer timeframes and previous base observations, was the most prudent and ultimately correct posture. Today, tactical patience triumphed over any urge to chase bullish reversals, and the “Fugazi bounce” theory proved out in real time as predicted. Looking ahead, holding this support determines whether a medium-term relief bounce can materialize or the door opens for a deeper macro flush.

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