Bitcoin Relief Rally Stalls at $69K – Overbought Signals Flash Correction Warning – 2026 02 09

Bitcoin closed Monday February 9 at $69,147 after bouncing nearly 5% from Thursday’s $65,928 capitulation low, but this relief rally has hit a technical brick wall that suggests the next move is down. Comparing to our February 6 analysis at the $65,928 bottom, we correctly called the weekly Stochastic RSI extreme oversold reading K at 5.00 as a bounce catalyst and identified $68,384 as critical support. Both predictions proved accurate the bounce materialized and $68,384 has held perfectly with today’s low printing at exactly that level.

However, we underestimated the bounce strength, assigning only 15% probability to the $67,000 to $72,000 bull case when price actually peaked at $71,418. This validates a key lesson when Weekly SRSI hits zero to five, bounces are 2x to 3x stronger than models predict, even in bear markets. Our directional bias was too conservative at 85% for further downside or consolidation, but our structural thesis is now playing out with precision. We warned on February 6 that any bounce would be a dead cat rally lacking conviction due to negative CMF, and that overbought oscillators would create exhaustion. Today that’s materializing perfectly the 12 hour Stochastic RSI sits at 92.22 extreme overbought, 6 hour at 80.62, while CMF remains negative on four of six timeframes 2H at negative 0.03, 6H at negative 0.12, 12H at negative 0.11, Daily at negative 0.06.

This is textbook distribution smart money selling into retail buying. The 4 to 12 hour MACD histograms turned positive showing bullish divergence, the one bright spot we identified, but it’s overwhelmed by overbought oscillators and negative money flow. Price remains 8% to 27% below all moving averages across every timeframe, with nearest resistance at $70,286 just $1,139 overhead a level Bitcoin has failed to reclaim three times in 48 hours.

For the next 24 to 48 hours, we assign 45% probability to bearish pullback targeting $66,500 to $68,500, 40% to choppy consolidation $68,000 to $71,000, and only 15% to bullish squeeze above $71,000. Trading bias favors shorting rallies into $70,000 to $71,500 with stops above $72,500, targeting $68,384 then $66,500 for 1 to 2 or 1 to 3 risk reward. Long attempts from $67,500 to $68,500 are high risk requiring tight sizing given the overwhelming bearish structure.

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