Bitcoin Nears Critical Compression Zone: 71-72k Becomes Final Resistance Before Next Leg. 2026 02 16

Bitcoin trades at $68,892 with a deceptive +0.13% gain that masks the tectonic shifts happening beneath the surface. Our February 10 analysis called for SHORT-ON-RALLIES and six days later every major resistance level has held exactly as forecast, with price rejecting $70,102 four times since last week. Today brings critical new intelligence that changes our tactical approach while confirming the strategic bear thesis.

The most important development is the massive moving average compression forming across 2-hour through 6-hour timeframes. When EMAs compress like this, it historically signals an imminent 5-10% volatility breakout, and all indicators point downward. However, before the next leg down materializes, we expect one final squeeze toward 71,500-72,000 as price attempts to clear compressed moving averages. This represents our highest-conviction short entry zone for the next 48 hours.

What makes this setup particularly compelling is the 2-week timeframe data confirming we are far from the end of this bear cycle. The 2-week MACD just turned negative, 2-week RSI moving average just crossed below 50, and 2-week CMF just entered distribution. These macro bearish signals only appear at the beginning of major down-legs, not at the end. Combined with weekly Stochastic RSI pinned at K=0.00 and daily ADX at 56.17 showing extreme institutional capitulation, we are witnessing the start of a new bear phase.

Our updated forecast assigns 45% probability to consolidation between 69,500-72,000 over the next 24-48 hours, 40% to immediate correction toward 67,000-69,000, and 15% to extended breakdown. The critical tactical shift: wait for the bounce to 71,500-72,500 before initiating aggressive shorts targeting 68,000, then 65,000, and ultimately 56,000-60,000 over the next 4-8 weeks as this new macro bear leg unfolds.

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