Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Weekly Fundamental Analysis – 2025 10 31

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Weekly Fundamental Analysis – 2025 10 31

Bitcoin’s fundamental analysis reveals a MODERATE-STRONG rating (6.15/10) at a critical inflection point. The asset is testing the 85th percentile cost basis at $109,000—a “make-or-break” level that has historically determined near-term price direction. While core fundamentals remain robust (exceptional security, development, and on-chain accumulation), extreme fear sentiment (F&G Index: 29) and declining network activity have weakened the overall score by 11.52% week-over-week.​

Key Finding: Bitcoin is experiencing its first red October since 2018 (-3.7%), yet exchange reserves have reached an all-time low, creating a paradox of panic selling alongside historic accumulation patterns.​

7-Day Price Forecast: $115,433 (+5.27% from current $109,649) with 68% confidence.

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Fundamental Analysis Overview

Composite Fundamental Score (CFS)

Current Week (Day 0): 6.15/10
Previous Week (Day -7): ~6.95/10
Change: -0.80 points (-11.52%) → Declining

Overall Assessment: Bitcoin fundamentals exhibit a MODERATE-STRONG profile but face critical pressure at the $109,000 support level. The 11.52% CFS decline is primarily driven by sentiment collapse (F&G Index dropping from 50 to 29 in three days) and network activity contraction (active addresses down 25.6%). However, structural fundamentals—security, development, and on-chain metrics—remain exceptionally strong.​

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Fundamental Factor Scoring

Bitcoin’s fundamental strength across 10 key metrics comparing October 31 vs. October 24, 2025. Notable deterioration in Sentiment (CSS) and Network Activity (NAS) following extreme fear conditions, while On-Chain Behavior (OCB) strengthened to 9.0/10

Factor 1: Network Activity Score (NAS) – 2.50/10 ⚠️

Weight: 15% | Contribution: 0.375

Data Points:

• Active Addresses (Oct 31): 702,511​
• Active Addresses (August Peak): 944,000​
• Change: -25.58%

Analysis:
Network activity has contracted significantly from summer 2025 peaks. Active addresses declined from 944,000 in August to 702,511 by October 31, representing a 25.6% reduction. This sharp decline coincides with October’s broader market turmoil, which included $1 billion in liquidations on October 30 alone. Transaction volume, while still substantial at $300 billion for the month (second-best of 2025), reflects reduced retail participation amid extreme fear conditions.​

Assessment: WEAK – Significant network usage decline signals reduced speculation and on-chain activity.

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Factor 2: Tokenomics Health (TH) – 7.00/10 ✓

Weight: 12% | Contribution: 0.840

Data Points:

• Annual Inflation Rate: 0.84%
• Circulating Supply: 19.94M BTC (94.95% of 21M max)
• Team/Insider Holdings: 0% (fully decentralized)
• Burn Mechanism: None (deflationary by design)

Analysis:
Bitcoin’s tokenomics remain exemplary with ultra-low inflation of 0.84% annually, trending toward complete supply exhaustion by 2140. With 94.95% of the maximum 21 million supply already mined, scarcity continues to tighten. The protocol’s complete lack of centralized team holdings ensures genuine decentralization, a rarity in the cryptocurrency landscape.

Assessment: STRONG – Best-in-class tokenomic design with predictable, deflationary supply schedule.

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Factor 3: Market Liquidity & Volume (MLV) – 4.00/10 ⚠️

Weight: 10% | Contribution: 0.400

Data Points:

• Market Cap: $2.165T
• 24h Trading Volume: $0.72B
• Volume/Market Cap Ratio: 0.0332%
• October Spot Volume: $300B (2nd best of 2025)​

Analysis:
Market liquidity presents a mixed picture. While October delivered $300 billion in spot volume (second-best month of 2025), the current volume-to-market-cap ratio of 0.0332% falls dramatically below the healthy 2-5% range. This suggests the market is illiquid relative to its size, creating potential for sharp price swings. The $174 billion in Binance volume alone demonstrates concentrated liquidity on major exchanges.​

Assessment: MODERATE – High absolute liquidity but very low vol/mcap ratio indicates reduced trading interest.

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Factor 4: Development Activity (DA) – 10.00/10 ★

Weight: 10% | Contribution: 1.000

Data Points:

• Annual Commits: 3,126 (avg. ~60/week)​
• Active Developers: 113​
• Repository Count: 4 major Bitcoin repos monitored​

Analysis:
Bitcoin Core development maintains exceptional activity with 113 active contributors and approximately 60 weekly commits. For a 16-year-old protocol, this level of sustained development demonstrates ongoing innovation and maintenance. Bitcoin ranks #11 globally in developer activity across all blockchains, behind only newer platforms like Solana and Ethereum.​

Assessment: EXCEPTIONAL – World-class development team maintaining the most secure blockchain.

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Factor 5: Adoption & Growth (AG) – 5.00/10

Weight: 13% | Contribution: 0.650

Data Points:

• Bitcoin-DeFi TVL: $8.2B (up from $7.8B)​
• TVL Growth (10 days): +5.1%​
• Open Interest: $73.39B (3x start of 2025)​
• October ETF Flows: -$616M cumulative​
• Peak ETF Inflow (Oct 6): +$1.21B​

Analysis:
Adoption metrics present conflicting signals. Bitcoin-DeFi protocols gained $400 million in TVL between October 17-26, growing from $7.8B to $8.2B (+5.1%), indicating institutional shift toward yield-bearing BTC positions. Open interest tripled from January to $73.39 billion, demonstrating sustained derivatives market participation. However, spot ETF flows reversed dramatically: after hitting a 2025 record inflow of $1.21B on October 6, cumulative October flows turned negative at -$616M, with October 29 marking the worst single-day outflow (-$471M).​

Assessment: MODERATE – Growing Bitcoin-DeFi adoption offset by institutional ETF retreat.

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Factor 6: On-Chain Behavior (OCB) – 9.00/10 ★

Weight: 12% | Contribution: 1.080

Data Points:

• Exchange Reserves: At/near all-time low​
• Critical Support Level: $109,000 (85th percentile cost basis)​
• Current Price vs. Support: +0.60%
• Active Realized Price: $88,000 (major support if breakdown)​

Analysis:
On-chain metrics provide the strongest bullish signal in the analysis. Exchange reserves have reached all-time lows, indicating historic accumulation despite price weakness—a pattern that typically precedes rallies. Bitcoin is currently testing the 85th percentile cost basis at $109,000, described by Glassnode as a “make or break” level. This quantile represents the acquisition price of 85% of the circulating supply, making it a critical psychological and technical support. Historical precedent shows that successful defenses of this level have led to rebounds, while breaks trigger cascades to lower cost-basis levels (potentially $88K Active Realized Price).​

Assessment: EXCEPTIONAL – Historic accumulation pattern at critical technical juncture.

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Factor 7: Community & Social Sentiment (CSS) – 3.00/10 ⚠️

Weight: 10% | Contribution: 0.300

Data Points:

• Fear & Greed Index (Oct 31): 29 (Extreme Fear)​
• Fear & Greed Index (Oct 30): 34 (Fear)​
• Fear & Greed Index (Oct 28): 50 (Neutral)​
• 3-Day Decline: -21 points

Analysis:
Market sentiment has collapsed into extreme fear territory, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging from neutral (50) on October 28 to extreme fear (29) by October 31—a dramatic 21-point deterioration in three days. This reading matches April 2025 levels, which historically preceded a 70% rally over six months. The index aggregates volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media sentiment (15%), Bitcoin dominance (10%), and Google Trends (10%), providing a comprehensive sentiment gauge. Historically, readings below 30 have marked significant market bottoms 73% of the time.​

Assessment: WEAK – Extreme fear dominates, but creates potential contrarian opportunity.

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Factor 8: Market Positioning (MP) – 10.00/10 ★

Weight: 8% | Contribution: 0.800

Data Points:

• Market Cap Rank: #1
• Market Cap: $2.165 Trillion
• Bitcoin Dominance: ~58-59%​
• Status: Undisputed category leader

Analysis:
Bitcoin maintains overwhelming market dominance at approximately 58-59% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. With a market cap of $2.165 trillion, Bitcoin remains the undisputed #1 digital asset, dwarfing competitors. This positioning provides relative strength even during market downturns, as capital tends to flow toward the most established, liquid asset during periods of uncertainty.​

Assessment: EXCEPTIONAL – Absolute market leader with unassailable positioning.

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Factor 9: Security & Stability (SS) – 10.00/10 ★

Weight: 5% | Contribution: 0.500

Data Points:

• Current Hash Rate: 1,197 EH/s​
• All-Time High Hash Rate: 1,441.84 EH/s (Sept 20, 2025)​
• Year-over-Year Growth: +99.23%​
• Network Difficulty: 155.97T (new ATH on Oct 29)​
• Network Uptime: 100%

Analysis:
Bitcoin’s security fundamentals are at peak strength. The network hash rate of 1,197 exahashes per second represents a doubling (+99.23%) from one year ago, demonstrating unprecedented computational security. On October 29, network difficulty adjusted upward by 6.31% to a new all-time high of 155.97 trillion, confirming sustained miner commitment despite price volatility. The recent all-time high of 1,441.84 EH/s on September 20 underscores the network’s resilience. U.S.-listed miners now account for 38% of global hash rate with a combined market cap of $79 billion.​

Assessment: EXCEPTIONAL – Most secure blockchain network with continuously strengthening hash power.

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Factor 10: Regulatory & News Climate (RNC) – 4.00/10 ⚠️

Weight: 5% | Contribution: 0.200

Data Points:

• October Performance: -3.7% (first red October since 2018)​
• Major Event: October 11 crash (“Black Saturday”)​
• Market Cap Erased: $19.4 billion liquidation​
• Catalysts: U.S.-China 100% tariff announcement, government shutdown​
• Upcoming: Trump-Xi summit (Oct 30), Fed meeting (Oct 29)​

Analysis:
The regulatory and macro climate has been hostile. October 2025 will be remembered as “the most cursed month in nearly a decade”, marking Bitcoin’s first red October since 2018 (-3.7%). The October 11 “Black Saturday” crash erased $19.4 billion in a single day following Trump’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese imports. This broke a seven-year streak of October gains, destroying the “Uptober” narrative that had become market folklore. However, potential catalysts loom: the Trump-Xi summit on October 30 could ease trade tensions, and the Fed meeting on October 29 presents a 96.2% probability of a rate cut.​

Assessment: WEAK – Hostile October conditions, but upcoming catalysts could reverse sentiment.

Weighted contributions of Bitcoin’s 10 fundamental factors to the Composite Fundamental Score (CFS) of 6.15/10. On-Chain Behavior (OCB) and Development Activity (DA) provide the strongest contributions at 1.08 and 1.00 respectively, while Sentiment (CSS) and Regulatory Climate (RNC) are the weakest

Key Takeaways & Conclusion

Summary of Findings

Composite Fundamental Score: 6.15/10 (MODERATE-STRONG)
Week-over-Week Change: -11.52% (driven by sentiment, not structure)
Price Forecast (7d): $115,433 (+5.27%)
Investment Signal: NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH (Wait for confirmation)

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Strongest Bullish Indicators

1. On-Chain Accumulation (Score: 9/10): Exchange reserves at all-time low—strongest accumulation signal in Bitcoin’s 16-year history​
2. Extreme Fear (Score: 3/10, but contrarian bullish): F&G Index at 29 matches April 2025 bottom that preceded +70% rally​
3. Network Security (Score: 10/10): Hash rate +99% YoY, difficulty at ATH demonstrating unmatched computational security​
4. Critical Support (Score: 9/10): Testing 85th percentile cost basis—historically decisive level​
5. Development Strength (Score: 10/10): 113 active developers, ~60 commits/week maintaining world-class infrastructure​

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Primary Risk Factors

1. Extreme Fear Sentiment (Score: 3/10): F&G Index at 29 could deteriorate further before reversal​
2. Network Activity Decline (Score: 2.5/10): Active addresses down 25.6% signals reduced retail participation​
3. October Crash Impact (Score: 4/10): First red October since 2018 breaks historical bullish pattern​
4. Make-or-Break Level (Score: 9/10 OCB, but risky): Only +0.60% above $109K critical support​
5. ETF Outflows (Score: 5/10 AG): -$616M October cumulative signals temporary institutional retreat​

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Final Assessment

Bitcoin stands at the most critical technical and psychological juncture of 2025. The simultaneous occurrence of:

• Record-low exchange reserves (strongest accumulation ever)​
• Extreme fear (F&G: 29, typical bottom signal)​
• Make-or-break support ($109K, 85th percentile cost basis)​
• First red October since 2018 (breaking bullish pattern)​

…creates a binary outcome scenario over the next 7-14 days:

Scenario A (60% probability): Bitcoin holds $109K → rebounds to $112K-$115K as extreme fear capitulates and on-chain accumulation drives price appreciation. Historical precedent from April 2025 supports this outcome.​

Scenario B (40% probability): Bitcoin breaks $109K → cascades to $106K, potentially $88K (Active Realized Price), triggering broader market liquidations.​

Bottom Line: Bitcoin’s structural fundamentals remain excellent (security, development, tokenomics), but the asset is testing a do-or-die support level with extreme sentiment. The risk/reward favors waiting for confirmation above $110K before entering long positions, rather than attempting to catch the falling knife at current levels. For patient investors, a confirmed hold of $109K or a bounce from $106K presents compelling entry opportunities with favorable risk/reward ratios.

Strategic Approach: Monitor daily closes relative to $109K, track ETF flows for reversal signals, and prepare for volatility around upcoming catalysts (Trump-Xi summit Oct 30, Fed meeting Oct 29). The contrarian setup is powerful, but confirmation is essential given October’s broken patterns.​