Bitcoin Bounces But Faces a Ceiling — The Test Will Define the Next Move – 29042026 AM

📽️Bitcoin stands at the edge of uncertainty.

Bitcoin is trading at $77,020 as of April 29, 2026, and if you have been following our analysis over the past week, you will recognize this as the bounce we flagged was possible when price tested the 75,600 support zone. Comparing today’s action to the April 27th analysis, the picture has evolved meaningfully — the bounce materialized exactly as the oversold Stoch RSI readings on the 12-hour and daily timeframes suggested it would, but now we find ourselves at a critical inflection point that will determine whether this is a genuine recovery or merely a relief rally within a larger bearish structure.

Let us be direct about what the data tells us. On the positive side, the 2-hour chart is the strongest it has been in weeks. MACD has executed a bullish cross, RSI sits at 51.90 above both the 50 level and its moving average, and the CMF reads 0.12 — genuine buying pressure. Price has reclaimed all four moving averages on the 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, and 12-hour timeframes, which is a significant structural achievement. The 12-hour DMI confirms this with +DI at 26.08 dominating -DI at 16.85 and ADX at 29.43 — a developing bullish trend by any measure.

However, we cannot ignore the warning signs that our detailed commentary highlighted with precision. The 6-hour MACD histogram sits at a deeply negative -159.9, and the CMF reads -0.12, indicating that despite price trading above the moving averages, money is flowing out on this timeframe. This divergence between price structure and momentum is the classic signature of a bounce, not a trend change. The daily MACD is also bearish with histogram at -88.6, and critically, the daily ADX at 24.82 is approaching the +DI level of 22.46 — a signal that the relief cycle is nearing its end.

The weekly chart adds the macro context that matters most. While the MACD has executed a bullish cross from deeply oversold territory with histogram at +1,564.2, the DMI remains firmly bearish with -DI at 22.00 above +DI at 16.81, and ADX at 31.64 confirms this is a strong bearish trend. The weekly CMF at -0.10 tells us institutional money has not returned. The weekly Stoch RSI at K=92.75 is overbought — the bounce has extended as far as the technicals reasonably allow.

Looking ahead, the $79,208 level (Daily MA #3) is the ceiling.

Our analysis identifies that “the bounce is forming its peak between MA3 and MA2” — price will fluctuate between 75,500 and 79,500 over the next 24-48 hours, with the resolution of this range determining the next directional move. A break above 79,500 opens the path to 82,000 (Weekly MA #2). A break below 75,500 exposes 73,500. Given the overbought weekly Stoch RSI and the daily ADX approaching +DI, our lean is toward the 79,500 ceiling holding, making short positions at that level the higher-probability setup.

A cautiously bullish stance on dips toward 75,500-76,000 remains valid while recognizing that this bounce, however real, is not yet a trend change.

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