Bitcoin’s Macro Bear Cycle Is Now Confirmed — Here’s What We’ve Been Saying For Two Weeks

There was a moment in late May when many market participants thought Bitcoin had bottomed. The price had been compressing between 73,000 and 74,000 for nearly a week, the moving averages were converging, and the narrative shifted toward a macro reversal from bearish to bullish. We did not share that view. The weekly charts never confirmed a bull cycle — the MAs were tangled, the weekly money flow was negative, and the weekly trend strength was still pointing down. That consolidation resolved bearishly, and what followed was a textbook cascade.

We have been calling this move. For two weeks, our reports have been directionally right. On May 11, with Bitcoin at 81,300, we called a short setup at 81,800-82,000, identifying that level as a major triple-resistance cluster. The market rejected that zone immediately. On May 13, we shifted from neutral-bullish to neutral-cautious, flagging that smart money was starting to step aside. By May 28-30, we were calling for a break of 72,460 with downside targets in the 70,000-71,000 range. The break came — and then the market overshot our targets dramatically, repricing all the way to 71,333 in less than 48 hours.

What we have learned from this cycle is the same lesson we keep relearning: when a major support level breaks with high trend strength and negative money flow across multiple timeframes, there is no “wait and see” period. The market reprices immediately to the next major level. We have seen this pattern repeat, and we are now seeing it again at 63,000.

Today, Bitcoin sits at 63,487. The 63K level that everyone was watching as “support” has just flipped into a ceiling — every bounce into it is now a selling opportunity. The next major psychological floor is 60,000, and beneath that lies the macro zone of 54,000-60,000. Our bias remains short with high conviction. The only level that would make us reconsider is a sustained break of 68,000 — the 2-hour 200 EMA. Until we see that, every relief bounce is a short entry.

The macro context matters here. Since late February and into early March, the crypto market has been operating under prolonged geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty that has prevented any sustained risk-on flows. This kind of environment, where external factors override pure technical signals, is precisely when short-term bullish setups fail. The May 11 short at 81,300, the May 13 shift to cautious, the late-May calls for a 72K break — all of these were validated by this macro backdrop. The charts were telling the truth; the consensus was not.

For traders, the message is simple: do not catch falling knives in a confirmed bear cycle. The 2-hour trend strength reading is at 74 — an extreme that historically means “selling at any price.” Money flow is negative across every timeframe from 6 hours up to the weekly. The weekly candle just printed at -13.6% — the largest single-week decline on record. The trend is your friend until 68K breaks and holds, and we are a long way from that level.

Our targets: 61,333 (retest of the weekly low), 60,000 (the psychological floor and the line in the sand), and 55,000-58,000 if the macro zone comes into play. We have been on the right side of this trade for two weeks. We intend to stay there.

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