Solana Remains Locked in a Defensive Grind as Bearish Structure Tightens 2025 11 28

Today’s price action on Solana  confirms that the bearish cycle we identified earlier this week is far from over. After sliding from the 160s—a move our previous analysis anticipated—price has spent the last 24 hours struggling to reclaim even the nearest resistance levels. We are currently trading near 137, well below the 4-hour and 6-hour moving average ribbons that have effectively capped every recent bounce attempt. What stands out most in today’s chart data is the exhaustion of bullish momentum; while we saw a brief flicker of hope when the 2-hour oscillators hit oversold territory, the bounce was shallow and lacked genuine volume.

Comparing this to our prior outlook, the market has respected the overhead supply zones perfectly. We warned that relief rallies would likely be “dead cat bounces” rather than true reversals, and the daily chart proves this thesis is holding firm. The 12-hour and daily DMI readings show the -DI line continuing to dominate, and with the ADX remaining elevated above 30 on the 12-hour frame, the trend strength is undeniably bearish. Even more concerning is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which remains negative across most intraday timeframes, signaling that funds are being distributed rather than accumulated during these pauses.

Looking ahead to the next 48 hours, patience is absolutely critical. The recent high on the 4-hour chart has not been breached, and until we see a confirmed close above the 140–145 resistance band accompanied by positive money flow, the path of least resistance remains down. We are effectively watching a controlled grind toward the 130 support floor. If that level fails to hold, our technical roadmap points directly to 127 as the next base target, with a risk of extending toward 120 if selling accelerates. For now, we maintain our defensive stance: do not try to catch the falling knife. Instead, view these stalled rallies into the EMA ribbon as validation that the sellers are still in control. The market needs to prove it can sustain a reversal before we change our bias.

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