Ethereum closed February 4 at $2,255.96 after testing the critical $2,156 support floor established on February 2the lowest point since the December capitulation. This level represents not just psychological support but a technical inflection point where bulls must defend or risk accelerated downside toward $2,100.
Ethereum demonstrates exceptional fundamental strength with a Composite Fundamental Score of 9.17/10, marking a 6.38% improvement from the previous week. The network achieved record-breaking transaction volumes with 2.23 million transactions on December 29, 2025—the highest single-day count in Ethereum's history
Ethereum finished the final trading day of 2025 at 2,991.62, up +0.65%, but the technical setup we're seeing defines where traders stand entering 2026. We've identified a Berry cycle consolidation without clear direction, and that pause is about to resolve into either bullish reversal or bearish continuation.
For the next 24–48 hours, our analysis favors consolidation or a controlled pullback toward 3,280–3,310 as a healthier way to extend this move. We treat that zone as the primary opportunity for renewed longs, with upside focus on 3,420 initially and then the 3,480–3,520 cluster where 12H and daily moving averages converge. Until weekly MACD and RSI clearly break their bearish shackles, we avoid assuming a full macro reversal and instead trade this as a strong but potentially fragile rally inside a still‑heavy higher‑timeframe trend.
The weekly chart reveals the most alarming signal: ETH now trades below the critical 90-week moving average at 3,046, a level that has supported major corrections since 2022. This breakdown coincides with Stoch RSI readings of 8.02 on the weekly timeframe, marking extreme oversold conditions that historically precede either sharp capitulation wicks or multi-week consolidation basins. Yesterday's analysis correctly identified the weekly low at 2,716 as key support; today's data reinforces that this level represents the ultimate downside magnet if current consolidation fails.
Today marks a consolidation pause in Ethereum's recovery journey, with price hovering around 2,940 after yesterday's impressive 5.89% surge from capitulation lows. The market is catching its breath, and our analysis suggests this is precisely what healthy price action looks like after such volatile swings. We correctly identified the consolidation scenario in yesterday's forecast, with price respecting both the 2,850 support floor and the psychological 3,000 resistance ceiling.
Examining the moving average structure reveals persistent bearish alignment across the four-hour and longer timeframes. The exponential moving averages remain stacked bearishly, with price oscillating around the shortest-period MA while struggling to establish any sustained base above the $3,600 resistance zone. The six-hour chart shows MA curvature that has improved from extremely negative readings to moderately negative, yet the distance between these moving averages continues widening, indicating the bearish cycle has not completed its course.
If that zone gives way on a closing basis, the next logical targets fall to 3,700, 3,500, and possibly as deep as 3,350, as detailed by both current session lows and historic demand. However, pure trend analysis warns that the odds of a resounding recovery remain slim as long as moving averages continue to slope down and momentum indicators do not break back above their respective midlines.
Ethereum demonstrates strong fundamental health with a Composite Fundamental Score (CFS) of 8.18/10, representing a +5.33% improvement from the previous week's 7.77/10. The network exhibits robust on-chain metrics, exceptional developer activity, and solid tokenomics, though community sentiment has weakened amid recent price volatility. Based on multi-factor regression analysis, ETH is projected to reach $4,540 by October 25, 2025, representing potential upside of +18.5% from current levels, with 82% confidence.
The critical level to watch moving forward is forty-two hundred dollars. Price needs to reclaim and hold this zone to confirm the reversal is genuine rather than just another bear market bounce. Support has solidified in the forty-one hundred to forty-one fifty range, creating a relatively tight risk zone for traders looking to position for the anticipated move higher
