For traders, this is still a market to fade strength rather than chase it. Rallies into 90k–91.5k are candidates for carefully managed shorts, while dip‑buys near 88k are strictly tactical and should be treated as scalps inside a larger bearish structure. Until daily RSI can reclaim 50 and price can climb back above the 12‑hour MA1, Bitcoin’s recent bounce looks like a pause in the downtrend, not the start of something bigger.
For the next 24–48 hours, our analysis favors consolidation or a controlled pullback toward 3,280–3,310 as a healthier way to extend this move. We treat that zone as the primary opportunity for renewed longs, with upside focus on 3,420 initially and then the 3,480–3,520 cluster where 12H and daily moving averages converge. Until weekly MACD and RSI clearly break their bearish shackles, we avoid assuming a full macro reversal and instead trade this as a strong but potentially fragile rally inside a still‑heavy higher‑timeframe trend.
Bitcoin has spent the last sessions grinding higher into the low‑90k band, pressing right into the same 12H resistance zone around 93k that was flagged earlier this month as a “decision level” rather than a clean breakout signal. Short‑term momentum remains constructive across 2H–12H, with MACD and RSI recovering and confirming that bulls have wrestled back control of the intraday tape, but the weekly structure is still firmly bearish with price well below its major moving averages. That combination keeps this move squarely in “fugazi rally” territory for now: real upside energy, but pressing directly into a pre‑defined ceiling cluster rather than breaking the macro trend.
The weekly chart reveals the most alarming signal: ETH now trades below the critical 90-week moving average at 3,046, a level that has supported major corrections since 2022. This breakdown coincides with Stoch RSI readings of 8.02 on the weekly timeframe, marking extreme oversold conditions that historically precede either sharp capitulation wicks or multi-week consolidation basins. Yesterday's analysis correctly identified the weekly low at 2,716 as key support; today's data reinforces that this level represents the ultimate downside magnet if current consolidation fails.
Compared with last week, the most important change is not the level itself but the character of the move. On November 27, momentum was still hot on the way up, with Stoch RSI pinned over 90 on multiple intraday frames and money flow only just ticking positive. Now we see almost the opposite texture: moving averages are still stacked bearishly above price, DMI on the daily chart remains firmly negative, yet MACD histograms on 12‑hour and daily have turned positive and weekly Stoch RSI is crushed down into single digits. In plain language, the trend is still down, but the selloff is starting to look laboured rather than explosive.
Today marks a consolidation pause in Ethereum's recovery journey, with price hovering around 2,940 after yesterday's impressive 5.89% surge from capitulation lows. The market is catching its breath, and our analysis suggests this is precisely what healthy price action looks like after such volatile swings. We correctly identified the consolidation scenario in yesterday's forecast, with price respecting both the 2,850 support floor and the psychological 3,000 resistance ceiling.
We're witnessing a fascinating battle on Bitcoin's charts today, and it's one that traders need to understand carefully. When we opened our analysis at 88,640, Bitcoin was trading just above the critical 88,790 resistance level on the 2-hour chart, having rallied 2.12% over the last 24 hours. That climb from yesterday's 86,803 opening represents a meaningful bounce, but the real story lies in what's happening beneath the surface across our multi-timeframe structure.
