Solana’s Critical Test: When Bear Traps Meet Weekly Breakdown 2025 11 13
Yesterday’s $160 recovery looked promising, but it was a textbook bear trap. Solana closed at $155.45, decisively below the critical weekly 90-period moving average at $160.66. This isn’t just a pullback—it’s a breakdown with consequences.
The most telling indicator is the weekly MACD. This indicator fell 0.3 points while the signal line lagged, creating a widening histogram of negative -6.06. Translation: bearish momentum is accelerating, not stabilizing. In strong downtrends, this typically means selling is intensifying rather than exhausting.
Daily indicators confirm severity. The Directional Movement Index shows -DI at 28.4 dominating +DI at 8.78, while ADX stands at 38.76. This is a trend with structure and conviction. RSI sits at 37.36, deep in oversold, yet price continues lower. This pattern—extreme oversold failing to produce reversal—often precedes capitulation rather than immediate relief.
Shorter timeframes show consolidation attempts. The 2H RSI is improving and some indicators stabilize. But context matters. These signals exist within a daily and weekly structure that remains decidedly bearish. The 4H Chaikin Money Flow at -0.20 indicates strong distribution and money flowing outward.
Looking ahead, $155 is the immediate battleground. If this fails on a daily close, the next support sits at $150, a psychological level and recent low. If $150 breaks with volume, acceleration toward $140-145 becomes plausible. The extended scenario opens a path toward $130.
The story is straightforward: weekly structure is broken, daily momentum is accelerating lower, and consolidation attempts are occurring within an established downtrend. Until the weekly MACD turns positive and signal crosses above it, weakness remains the path of least resistance. Technical evidence suggests further testing lower is likely before any meaningful recovery becomes credible.
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This chart visually represents the consensus indicator scores across all analyzed timeframes, providing a clear, at-a-glance view of the prevailing market sentiment.
-1 = Bearish 🧸 ,+1=Bullish 🐂 ,+-0.5 weak Bullish/Bearish , 0(0.5-0.5) = Neutral
This chart plots the key price levels—floor, resistance, and ceiling—that we identified for each timeframe. It helps in visualizing the critical support and resistance zones.
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