Solana Crashes to $67 Before Bouncing — Extreme Oversold But Structural Damage Severe – 2026 02 06

Solana just experienced one of its most brutal 48-hour periods in recent memory. Since our February 4 analysis at $97, SOL plunged to a devastating low of $67.31—a -31% waterfall that obliterated multiple support levels in a single move—before bouncing to current levels around $80.68.

Our bearish thesis was validated, but the magnitude exceeded even our most aggressive downside targets. We warned that a break below $95.86 would open the path to $90-92; instead, the market didn’t stop until finding buyers at $67. This is a stark reminder that when weekly MACD is deeply negative, RSI is sub-25, and multiple timeframes show extreme bearish DMI readings, the risk is not just correction—it’s capitulation.

The current technical picture is sobering. Our aggregate indicator score has deteriorated from -20.5 to -24.0 out of 30—the most bearish reading we’ve ever recorded for SOL. Price trades 30-40% below moving averages across all timeframes. The weekly Stochastic RSI has hit 0.00—a mathematical floor that historically precedes violent relief bounces but does not signal trend reversal.

The 6-hour ADX at 73.91 and the 4-hour ADX at 71.47 represent extreme trend strength readings. The -DI readings above 40 across multiple frames confirm that bears maintain complete control of direction.

However, extreme oversold conditions warrant tactical caution. The 2-hour Stoch RSI has already spiked to 81.42, and MACD has printed a tiny positive histogram. This suggests the immediate bounce from $67 may have more room to run before encountering serious resistance—likely at the 2H MA1 around $91.

Our 24-48 hour outlook assigns 45% probability to consolidation between $78-$85, with elevated risk of both a retest of $67 (35-40%) and an extended relief rally toward $90 (20%).

Wait for clearer signals. Fading rallies into $88-92 offers better risk/reward than chasing shorts into extreme oversold conditions. Only consider longs on confirmed reversal signals—2H/4H Stoch RSI bullish crosses with CMF turning positive.

The structural damage is real. Until daily and weekly moving averages are reclaimed, SOL remains in a bear market—but within that framework, extreme oversold conditions demand respect for potential snapback rallies.

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