Ethereum Finds Its Footing — But the Structural Battle Has Just Begun – 2026 03 11

Ethereum is trading around the $2,075 mark as we close out the March 11 session, and it has been a meaningful day. After spending most of the past several months grinding lower — reaching a weekly low of $1,928 as recently as earlier this week — ETH has staged a recovery that deserves serious attention. Today’s gain of +1.95% on the daily and a weekly rally of +7.19% show that buyers have not abandoned this asset, even as the macro structure remains challenging.

What stands out most in our analysis today is the short-term clarity of the bullish signal. On the 2H, 4H, and 6H charts, ETH price is sitting above all key short-term EMAs, the MACD is positive and expanding across all three frames, RSI is above 50 and above its moving average, and CMF on the 6H is the strongest reading at +0.12 — confirming genuine capital inflow, not just a short-squeeze. The 4H Stoch RSI K-line is still at 48.92, meaning it has room to extend before hitting overbought levels, which is an encouraging sign for a short-term continuation.

However, we must be honest about where we are in the bigger picture. The weekly chart remains deeply bearish — MACD at −397.85 is not a number you can paper over, and CMF at −0.20 tells us that large capital has not yet rotated back into ETH in any meaningful way. The daily chart still has all four EMAs stacked 150 to 800 points above current price. This is a recovery that, so far, resembles an oversold bounce more than a structural reversal.

The key short-term test is the 4H MA#4 at 2,078.76 — we briefly traded above this today (high of 2,085.69), but failed to close decisively above it. A convincing break and hold above this level opens the door to 2,104 (6H MA#3), which we identify as the first real proof-of-momentum target. Until then, we treat this rally as a counter-trend move within a larger bearish structure, and manage risk accordingly.

The good news: the 1D RSI crossing above 50 today, and a MACD histogram turning positive on the daily (28.09), are early signs that the medium-term momentum balance is shifting. We will be watching these closely over the next 24–48 hours.

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