Ethereum February 25, 2026 — The Floor That Roared Back

Yesterday we called it. Right there in the analysis, buried at the bottom of a brutally bearish scorecard of −13.5 out of 30, we wrote: “chasing new shorts at 1,845 carries asymmetric risk” and “violent 20–40% counter-trend bounces are historically common” when the Weekly Stochastic RSI hits mathematical zero. Today, Ethereum answered.

From an intraday low of 1,797 — the exact floor level we identified as the multi-timeframe support across every chart — ETH launched a squeeze that carried price all the way to 1,975. That is a move of +178 USDT, nearly 10%, in under 24 hours, and it unfolded precisely along the lines our Weekly SRSI extreme reading flagged as a real, measurable risk. The short trade we recommended — entry 1,870–1,897, stop 1,935, TP1 at 1,820, TP2 at 1,797 — delivered both targets before the squeeze ran. If you respected the stop at 1,935 , you locked profit and stepped aside from the chaos. That is what disciplined risk management looks like.

Let us be honest about the full picture though. The primary bias was SHORT, the bear case carried 50% probability, and the bounce we said had only a 15% chance of happening happened — and exceeded its own target. The bear scenario was correct directionally for the first part of the session; the bull outcome materialized in the second. Ethereum does not care about our probabilities. It cares about liquidity, and today it found it at 1,797 with both Weekly Stochastic RSI lines simultaneously at absolute zero.

Where do we stand right now? The aggregate indicator score has improved dramatically from −13.5 to −2.0 out of 30. Short-term frames are now the opposite extreme — the 2H Stochastic RSI is at 99.40, the 4H is at 95.97. These are not levels where you chase longs. These are levels where you wait, breathe, and let the market show you its hand. The 2H MA4 at 2,007 and the 6H MA2 at 2,088 are the decision zones that matter next. If price gets rejected at either of these with CMF turning negative, that is your next short signal. If price closes above 2,088 on the 4H with improving money flow, the squeeze has legs toward 2,133.

What has not changed is the macro structure. The Daily ADX sits at 54.75 — one of the most extreme directional readings in this entire analysis series. The Weekly MACD histogram is still at −152. The 1D and 1W remain firmly in the bear column of our scorecard. The 1,797 session low is now the line in the sand: as long as it holds, the bounce has room to breathe. If it breaks on a daily close, the 1,720–1,680 zone comes back into play and our most bearish scenario reasserts with full force.

Our next steps are clear. No fresh shorts at market from 1,975. Watch 2,007 for the first rejection test and 2,088 for the bigger structural decision. Tight stops on any trade — the Weekly SRSI extreme tells us volatility is not done. We continue to track. We continue to measure. We do not guess.

#ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #WeeklyOversold

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