Ethereum Extends Recovery Amid Bearish Undertones – 2025 11 12

Ethereum bounced back today, climbing to $3,565 from yesterday’s low of $3,443, marking a strong 4.26% daily gain. This recovery comes after Monday’s harsh selloff that saw ETH crash through multiple support levels, validating our bearish outlook from earlier in the week. While today’s price action might appear encouraging on the surface, the technical structure across multiple timeframes suggests this is a relief rally within a larger downtrend rather than a genuine reversal.

Yesterday, we witnessed ETH break decisively below the critical $3,514 support level on the four-hour chart, exactly as warned in our previous analysis. The breakdown continued through $3,480 and even violated the one-day 200-period moving average at $3,591, confirming the strength of the bearish cycle. Today’s recovery has brought price back above some of these levels, but the question remains whether this bounce has structural support or merely represents short-covering and oversold conditions being relieved.

Examining the moving average structure reveals persistent bearish alignment across the four-hour and longer timeframes. The exponential moving averages remain stacked bearishly, with price oscillating around the shortest-period MA while struggling to establish any sustained base above the $3,600 resistance zone. The six-hour chart shows MA curvature that has improved from extremely negative readings to moderately negative, yet the distance between these moving averages continues widening, indicating the bearish cycle has not completed its course.

Momentum indicators paint a mixed picture that leans bearish when viewed contextually. The MACD on shorter timeframes shows technically bullish positioning with the line above its signal, but both values remain deeply negative, suggesting any bullish interpretation is premature. The Stochastic RSI reached extreme overbought levels on the two-hour chart, typically a warning sign of exhaustion rather than strength. The Chaikin Money Flow remains negative across most timeframes, confirming that money continues flowing out of Ethereum despite today’s price recovery.

The broader market structure points toward further downside testing. Based on our analysis, we expect Ethereum to test the $3,300 level in the coming days, representing a new base formation. If that level fails to hold, the next critical zone lies at $3,000, with potential extension toward $2,800 and ultimately the $2,200-$2,300 range if bearish conditions persist. Only if the weekly moving average maintains above fifty and the MACD turns positive would we reconsider the bullish framework.

#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #Blockchain