ETHEREUM CLOSES 2025 AT CONSOLIDATION FORK—BERRY CYCLE PAUSES BEFORE DECISIVE BREAKOUT – 2025 12 31

Open the Image : Ethereum Berry Cycle – Battle of Bulls and Bears

Ethereum finished the final trading day of 2025 at 2,991.62, up +0.65%, but the technical setup we’re seeing defines where traders stand entering 2026. We’ve identified a Berry cycle consolidation without clear direction, and that pause is about to resolve into either bullish reversal or bearish continuation.

The structural keystone we’ve highlighted is critical: the red MA (50-period EMA) has dropped close to price on the daily chart. When this moving average approaches current price like this, it becomes the battleground that determines whether the November-December downtrend is exhausting or resuming. Price holding above red MA signals trend exhaustion; price falling below it confirms continuation toward 2,850-2,920 support. That single moving average is the decision filter we’re watching for 2026.

The intraday structure confirms our setup. On 2H, we see an attempt to break EMAs, but conviction remains low. CMF is curving down despite positive readings across 2H-4H, which reveals institutional money is fading into resistance. This is the signature pattern we track before the next leg down. The 4H assessment captures it perfectly—the structure doesn’t yet convince us it will go “bullish bullish.” That’s because momentum is accelerating toward exhaustion, not away from it. The Stoch RSI readings on 2H, 4H, and 12H all flash elevated, but K is rolling over simultaneously, failing to hold extreme peaks. This is textbook early-bounce failure: consolidation downward is imminent, not collapse.

The 6H timeframe is where our analysis becomes tactically critical: watch for decisive break above the compressed MAs. If price breaks cleanly above the MA ribbon with volume confirmation, intraday momentum might surprise upward toward 3,050+. If price rejects at the MA cluster, we expect sharp pullback to 12H lows near 2,945 within 12-24 hours. That 6H break or rejection will likely determine the next week’s directional bias.

Our 12H observation is the most important warning on the chart: Stoch RSI exceeding 80 on both K and D represents maximum stretch conditions historically preceding sharp reversals within 24-48 hours. K at 93.90 and D at 92.31 are exhaustion signals, not bullish. Combined with CMF curving down and MACD divergence (positive histogram while parent remains negative), we see a textbook setup: not reversal of the longer-term trend yet—that requires weekly confirmation—but absolutely a pullback trigger into support.

Our 1-day summary: sideways consolidation within the Berry cycle, direction undecided. CMF negative at -0.15 represents institutional distribution. RSI below 50 confirms macro weakness. Yet Stoch RSI K in the mid-90s means short-term overshoot before mean reversion. This is exactly the setup for a 2-3 day pullback trade, not a breakout.

Most critically, our weekly assessment: still in a bearish cycle; current pause may signal reversal or continuation. Weekly MACD at -115.73 is the most negative reading across all timeframes—unambiguous. If the bounce fails at 3,050 resistance (daily ceiling), we assess high probability of weekly trend resumption downward to 2,850+ within 5-7 days. Only if price sustains above 3,050+ and holds there for 2-3 days with volume, combined with weekly Stoch RSI climbing above 30-40, does weekly reversal become credible.

For the next 24-48 hours, we favor consolidation bias. We recommend buying support at 2,950-2,970 zone (near 2H-4H MA1 cluster), targeting resistance at 3,020-3,050, with stops strictly at 2,940. Our probability distribution: 55% consolidation range chop, 30% pullback to 2,900-2,930 if 6H MA breaks, 15% extension to 3,100 if all resistance breaks convincingly.

The deeper lesson we’re tracking is about cycle-timing patterns. Our practice of monitoring momentum acceleration/deceleration, CMF trajectory shifts, and MA compression patterns captures early-warning signals preceding move exhaustion. The Stoch RSI at 80+ was technically bullish; the observation that K is rolling over from the peak is the operational signal telling us the move is aging into completion rather than accelerating into continuation. That distinction shapes our trading strategy.

As 2026 opens, we’re watching the 6H MA break. If price clears above compressed MA ribbon with conviction, intraday bulls control the week. If price rejects and rolls back below, bears are positioned to press 2H-4H weakness into 12H pullback and potentially 1D breakdown toward 2,900. The weekly chart remains our ultimate arbiter—until that bearish MACD divergence flips to positive histogram sustained growth, we treat every bounce as relief within a larger downtrend.

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