Bitcoin’s Bounce Inside A Bigger Downtrend 2025 12 15

Bitcoin is spending this Monday afternoon doing what downtrends do best – bouncing just enough to look tempting without actually repairing any of the structural damage. Price is hovering around 89.6k, up roughly 1.7% over the last day, but every major moving average from 2‑hour to weekly still sits firmly overhead. The short‑term charts are where the optimism lives: MACD has flipped positive on 2H and 4H, RSI has crawled back toward the neutral 50 zone, and intraday Stoch RSI has ripped into extreme overbought territory. That is the classic footprint of a relief rally, not a fresh bull leg.

Once the lens zooms out, the picture turns heavier. On the 12‑hour timeframe, price remains thousands of dollars below the first moving average, with MACD and RSI both firmly bearish. This frame acts as the bridge between quick bounces and true trend changes, and right now it still says “downtrend.” The daily chart is showing a stronger positive MACD histogram, a textbook bullish divergence after weeks of selling, but DMI refuses to confirm. −DI still dominates +DI with ADX above 25, telling us that bears retain control even as momentum fades. Weekly data reinforces that: RSI sits below 40, MACD is deeply negative, and only the weekly Stoch RSI provides a hint of hope by clinging to oversold levels near 10.

In practical terms, the market has built a short‑term floor around 89.4k, with a more serious cushion near 88k at the weekly low. Overhead, resistance now begins just above 90k and thickens all the way to 91.5k, exactly where the 12‑hour MA1 caps the chart. That band is the current battlefield. As long as Bitcoin remains under it, the path of least resistance is sideways to down. The base case for the next 24 to 48 hours is simple: choppy consolidation between support at 89k–89.5k and resistance in the low 90s, with a meaningful risk that overbought intraday oscillators roll price back toward the 88k area.

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