Bitcoin Resilience Tested Amid Mixed Signals

Bitcoin continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience as it navigates through a complex technical landscape on this final Friday of October. Trading at approximately $111,249 after gaining over one percent in the past twenty-four hours, the leading cryptocurrency finds itself at a crucial inflection point where short-term bullish momentum confronts longer-term structural headwinds. Yesterday’s analysis highlighted concerns about weakening trend strength despite rising prices, and today’s session has validated those observations as Bitcoin consolidates within a tight range between key support and resistance zones.

The lower timeframes present an encouraging picture with strong positive momentum across two-hour, four-hour, and six-hour charts. The MACD indicator has successfully crossed above zero on these shorter intervals, while the RSI maintains healthy readings around sixty without entering extreme overbought territory. The DMI confirms buyers remain in control with the positive directional indicator significantly exceeding the negative counterpart. However, the concerning divergence we identified yesterday persists as the Chaikin Money Flow shows weakening volume support despite price gains, particularly evident on the six-hour and twelve-hour timeframes where CMF readings have turned negative. This volume weakness suggests the current rally lacks the conviction needed for sustained upside.

Our previous forecast anticipated consolidation with potential resistance rejection, and the market has indeed struggled to break decisively above the $112,200 resistance cluster formed by the four-hour and six-hour moving averages. The daily and weekly timeframes continue to present bearish signals with negative MACD readings and deteriorating directional movement, reinforcing our cautious stance.

The critical support level at $107,500 that we highlighted remains the most important downside target should momentum falter. Looking ahead to the next forty-eight hours, we maintain a base case scenario of continued range-bound trading between $110,500 and $112,200, with a thirty-five percent probability of downside testing toward $109,500 if the shorter timeframes lose their bullish momentum. A breakout above $112,600 would open the path toward $113,200, though we assign only a fifteen percent probability to this bullish scenario given the volume concerns and overhead resistance. Traders should exercise patience and wait for either a confirmed breakout with volume support or a pullback to the $109,500-$110,000 zone before establishing new positions.

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