Bitcoin Bounces Hard — But the Bear Hasn’t Left the Building – 2026 03 09

We woke up to a dramatically different session today. BTC/USDT opened the day at $65,943 — a level that has now been confirmed as a significant intraday support — and ripped +2.55% to close today’s candle around $67,625, with an intraday high of $68,431. That’s the kind of bounce that gets traders excited, and rightfully so. The pain of recent weeks has been intense, and any relief feels meaningful. But let’s be clear-eyed about what the data is actually telling us.

The most important signal today is the daily MACD bull cross. MACD has risen above the signal line with a positive histogram of +495.8. This is the first constructive daily MACD signal in quite some time, and it should not be dismissed. It tells us that the rate of selling is decelerating on the most important macro timeframe. Combined with the 2H MACD also flipping bullish and the 2H RSI recovering to the 50 level, there is genuine short-term momentum building.

However — and this is critical — the weekly picture has not changed one bit. Weekly RSI sits at 29.55, deep in oversold territory, and the weekly ADX is at 35.37 with −DI at 31 versus +DI at just 11.66. The weekly MACD histogram is expanding at −2,088. The structural trend is still powerfully bearish at the macro level. What we are most likely seeing today is a technically-driven relief bounce off an extremely oversold weekly RSI — not the beginning of a new bull leg.

The resistance zone of 68,000–68,431 has already proved its importance today: that was the high of the day, and price pulled back almost immediately to the 67,600 range. The next test of that zone will be decisive. If BTC can close a 4H candle cleanly above 68,204 (the 4H MA#1), we could see a push toward 69,177 (12H MA#1). That remains the bull case at 20% probability. The base case at 45% is a choppy range between 66,500 and 68,200 as bulls and bears fight over this critical zone over the next 24–48 hours.

For those managing positions: do not chase this bounce long without confirmation. The weekly structure demands respect. Short entries on a failed retest of the 68,000–68,200 zone with a stop above 69,200 remain the preferred setup. The bear trend is mature and historically oversold conditions on the weekly can extend further than expected before reversing. Our approach stays disciplined: data first, hope never.

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