Bitcoin at the Edge: Extreme Oversold Meets an Unrelenting Bear — Feb 24, 2026

Bitcoin is trading around $64,000 today, holding a precarious position that demands our full attention. After yesterday’s close near $64,615, today’s session has pushed prices down once more, printing a fresh weekly low at $62,422 earlier in the day before recovering to the mid-$64K range. The picture across all six timeframes is sobering, but it also contains some signals worth watching carefully.

Let’s talk about what we’re seeing structurally. Price sits 5% to 23% below its moving averages depending on which timeframe you look at — there is no MA offering even a hint of support below the current price. Every single MA ribbon across the 2H, 4H, 6H, 12H, 1D, and 1W charts is above price. That is not a setup that should invite reckless buying. The Daily ADX at 58.34 is one of the strongest trend readings we have recorded in this BTC series — it tells us the downtrend is not simply a correction; it has had genuine momentum and commitment from sellers.

And yet. Something is stirring. The 2H MACD histogram has flipped positive (29.2), meaning the 2H MACD line has crossed above its signal. The 1D MACD histogram has also turned positive (+371.2), with the daily MACD line crossing above the signal line for the first time since the decline intensified. These are not reversal confirmations — far from it — but they are the early whispers of deceleration. In our analysis, we have learned that paying attention to these decelerations has prevented us from blindly chasing price into exhaustion zones.

The Weekly RSI at 25.90 is historically rare for Bitcoin. Looking back, levels near 25–28 on the weekly RSI have marked generational buy zones — the 2022 bear market lows, the 2019 correction bottom. We are not calling a bottom here — the structure remains deeply bearish and the Weekly MACD histogram is still in violent expansion to the downside (−2,905.6 vs. signal at −6,626). But we acknowledge that this is territory where macro investors have historically begun accumulating carefully.

Our recommendation today remains SHORT on any bounce toward the 65,500–66,000 zone, with a defined stop at 67,500. We are not chasing the downside from current levels given the extreme oversold readings across multiple timeframes. The risk-reward of entering a fresh short at $64K, with Weekly RSI at 25.90, is asymmetric and unfavorable. Disciplined entries on strength remain the preferred approach.

Looking ahead to the next 24–48 hours, the 62,422 low is the critical line in the sand. A clean break below that level on volume could trigger a cascade toward 59,000–60,000. Conversely, a hold of that level combined with a 4H MACD crossover would open the door for a relief rally toward the 66,500–68,000 range. We will be watching these triggers closely.

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