Ethereum: Guarding the Fragile Support Floor- 2026 02 04

Ethereum closed February 4 at $2,255.96 after testing the critical $2,156 support floor established on February 2the lowest point since the December capitulation. This level represents not just psychological support but a technical inflection point where bulls must defend or risk accelerated downside toward $2,100.

The multi-timeframe picture reveals a market in moderate bearish consolidation with aggregate score negative -1.58 out of 5.0 but showing early signs of exhaustion rather than acceleration. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts display bullish MACD histogram divergence, with price making lower lows while histograms contract significantly. The 6-hour RSI at 48.26 sits just below its moving average at 49.70, hovering near the critical 50 neutral threshold. This is a market testing support, not collapsing through it. However, Chaikin Money Flow remains negative across 2H, 6H, and 12H timeframes, signaling persistent distribution despite price stabilization. The daily CMF at positive 0.11 suggests accumulation on longer timeframes, creating a divergence that often precedes directional resolution.

The key structural insight is that resistance overhead at $2,359 and $2,505 creates a significant ceiling that must be decisively breached. Any recovery must breach these levels with expanding volume to shift from bearish structure to neutral consolidation. Current price positioning between the February 2 low and first resistance creates a tactical no-trade zone where edge remains minimal. Looking at the next twenty-four to forty-eight hours, probability skews toward base-case consolidation 40-45% in the $2,150-$2,300 range as oscillators reset. The bear case 40-45% targets $2,100-$2,230 if the February 2 low breaks with volume. The bull case 15% requires sustained reclaim of $2,300 with improving money flow.

Until daily MACD crosses positive and 4H CMF sustains above zero, strength into resistance should be viewed as distribution opportunities rather than reversal confirmation. Position accordingly with defined risk parameters.

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