Bitcoin Fugazi Rally Tests 93k–94k, Weekly Bear Still in Charge​ 2025 12 09

Bitcoin has spent the last sessions grinding higher into the low‑90k band, pressing right into the same 12H resistance zone around 93k that was flagged earlier this month as a “decision level” rather than a clean breakout signal. Short‑term momentum remains constructive across 2H–12H, with MACD and RSI recovering and confirming that bulls have wrestled back control of the intraday tape, but the weekly structure is still firmly bearish with price well below its major moving averages. That combination keeps this move squarely in “fugazi rally” territory for now: real upside energy, but pressing directly into a pre‑defined ceiling cluster rather than breaking the macro trend.​

Looking back at the prior BTC report, the base case called for consolidation in the low‑to‑mid 90k region with downside risk into the high‑80k support if overbought intraday signals unwound. Price has broadly respected that roadmap: the bounce into the 93k area has materialized, validating the directional call, but the move has been more persistent than the relatively cautious probability weighting given to the bull path at the time. At the same time, the key levels map has held up well: 93.2k remains the intraday “fuse” where rejection would reopen the path toward the 90.9k and 87–88k floors identified around the 12H low and weekly MA support.​

Into the next 24 hours, the working assumption is for chop and mean‑reversion around this resistance band rather than a clean trend extension: a base scenario where price oscillates in a tight range below the 93–94k lid while intraday overbought conditions bleed off. The bear scenario focuses on a rejection that sends BTC back toward the high‑80k support cluster, especially if money‑flow metrics roll over again on 4H–12H. Only a sustained close through the current ceiling zone, backed by stronger weekly momentum, would upgrade the low‑probability bull case that targets the upper resistance band closer to 98k–100k; until then, rallies into this area are better treated as opportunities to manage risk than as fresh breakout entries.​

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