Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Daily Market Report — 24 November 2025, Holding the Line at Critical Support

We’re witnessing a fascinating battle on Bitcoin’s charts today, and it’s one that traders need to understand carefully. When we opened our analysis at 88,640, Bitcoin  was trading just above the critical 88,790 resistance level on the 2-hour chart, having rallied 2.12% over the last 24 hours. That climb from yesterday’s 86,803 opening represents a meaningful bounce, but the real story lies in what’s happening beneath the surface across our multi-timeframe structure.

Yesterday we predicted consolidation with downside risks if overbought conditions triggered profit-taking, and Bitcoin has partially validated that call. The bounce has been real—the asset moved from supporting lows toward resistance—but the structure tells us we’re far from clear sailing ahead. Our short-term momentum indicators, particularly the 2H and 4H timeframes, are flashing overbought warnings. The 6-hour Stochastic RSI reading of 93.77 is near absolute maximum, the 12-hour Stochastic RSI sits at 97.89, and the 2H RSI has climbed to 63.71. In technical analysis, extremes like these historically precede pullbacks, not continuations. What’s important to recognize is that these aren’t necessarily bearish reversals—they’re exhaustion signals suggesting the current rally has run its course in the near-term.

The bearish structure we’ve been tracking on daily and weekly timeframes remains stubbornly intact. Bitcoin sits $13.7K below its 50-day moving average at 102,364 and $8K below the 12-hour MA cluster. The daily MACD histogram stands at -658.7, deeply negative, while the daily RSI at 33.41 shows we’re bouncing from oversold but not yet recovered. What we’re likely observing is a textbook bear market rally—strong short-term momentum attempting to overcome longer-term bearish pressure, eventually meeting resistance and retreating. Our floor at 85,211 remains critical; if this level breaks on increased volume, we’d expect acceleration toward deeper support zones around 80,000 area.

The most encouraging signal comes from our analysis of money flow across timeframes. The CMF readings, while weak, haven’t turned decisively negative, suggesting institutional selling has eased. This matches our expectation that after the sharp decline, we’d see a consolidation bounce before the next directional move. Our floor-resistance-ceiling structure shows unified resistance at 88,640—exactly where price sits now—with the ceiling at 90,944. Breaking above this zone requires sustained follow-through, not just one-day momentum.

For the next 24 hours, we maintain our base scenario probability at 45 percent for consolidation between 87,500 and 89,500. The bear scenario probability sits at 40 percent, representing breakdown to 86,000 to 88,000 if overbought conditions trigger selling. The bull scenario, at 15 percent, would see continuation to 89,500 to 91,000, requiring volume confirmation above 88,790. What matters most for traders is respecting the overbought extremes and waiting for entry points near support rather than chasing this exhausted bounce. Position sizing should remain conservative given the conflicting timeframe signals.

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