SOLANA  CRASH TO CAPITULATION LOWS – NOVEMBER 21, 2025 TECHNICAL POST

Solana has plunged to $126.40, marking a devastating -$13.60 (-9.7%) decline over just two trading days and testing critical capitulation levels last seen during November’s severest correction phases. Today’s technical picture presents an extreme bearish domination across all timeframes—with 29 of 30 indicator readings confirmed bearish—yet paradoxically, extreme oversold conditions (SRSI K at 0.00 on both 2H and weekly charts) historically coincide with capitulation bottoms and potential bounce setup.

What Happened Yesterday vs Today: Thursday’s analysis predicted bearish continuation targeting the $130-135 zone with 75-80% conviction. That forecast has been exceeded with brutal precision. Price broke decisively below the $130 support floor without meaningful defense, accelerated toward $121.37, and closed the session trapped just $4.97 above that critical capitulation low. The weekly 90-EMA at $159.70—the structural support that held throughout the entire November 4-10 consolidation—has been conclusively broken, confirming this is not mere volatility but systematic breakdown.

Indicator Scorecard Reveals Maximum Bearish Alignment: Today’s multi-timeframe technical score registers -25.0 out of 30.0 maximum (83.3% bearish). Breaking this down: every timeframe from 2H to 1D scores -4.5 to -4.0, indicating perfect bearish alignment across MACD, RSI, and DMI indicators. The only neutral signal is weekly CMF at +0.05, yet even this metric is “dipping” as noted in real-time observation—failing to provide meaningful bullish divergence. This unified bearish structure ranks among the most extreme technical setups observed this month across monitored assets.

Daily ADX at Extreme 50.24 Confirms Powerful Downtrend: The Daily timeframe ADX reading of 50.24 represents the highest trend strength measurement recorded in this correction cycle. ADX above 50 indicates exceptionally powerful directional conviction with staying power—such extreme readings rarely reverse quickly. Paired with Daily D- at 29.71 dominating D+ at 6.19 by a 4.8x multiple, this confirms the downtrend possesses genuine institutional participation rather than retail panic alone. This structure historically sustains 3-10 additional days of selling unless interrupted by news catalyst or volume capitulation spike.

The Paradox: Extreme Oversold Meets Structural Breakdown: While RSI readings at 28-30 on both 2H and daily timeframes signal classic oversold capitulation, and SRSI K at 0.00 on both 2H and weekly timeframes exactly matches November 5’s extreme that preceded a +14% bounce to $168, today’s setup presents weaker bullish divergence. The key difference: November 5 featured positive CMF readings (+0.12-0.15 range) providing institutional accumulation support for the bounce. Current intraday CMF remains negative across 2H-1D (-0.03 to -0.20), suggesting weak institutional buying conviction despite price collapse. This creates a setup where technical oversold conditions exist without underlying money flow support—a potentially dangerous false-bottom pattern.

• Support & Resistance Structure Deteriorates: Floor analysis reveals $121.37 as today’s capitulation low—essentially the “floor gave away” signal previously flagged. This represents the crucial decision point: if broken, the next support cluster sits 7-8% lower at $115-120 (weekly base target). Overhead resistance has diverged dramatically across timeframes: 2H at $136.86, 4H at $140.16, 6H at $144.04, all the way to Daily at $171.57 and Weekly 90-EMA at $159.70 (broken support, now resistance). This expanding resistance structure confirms structural bearish breakdown—every potential support zone failing, every resistance zone elevated, and each timeframe’s MAs positioned 8-44% overhead of price.

Forecast & Trading Direction (85% Conviction – Upgraded): Base case (60% probability) expects consolidation within $120-130 range over the coming 24 hours as extreme oversold conditions trigger technical bounces to $126-130, followed by failure and renewed decline toward $115-120 zone. Bear scenario (30% probability) targets $110-125 extended breakdown if $121.37 floor decisively breaks with volume. Bull scenario (10% probability) reflects minimal upside—any bounce stalls at $130-135 resistance before selling resumes. Recommended action: aggressive short positioning on any bounce to $130-135 resistance with targets $120, $115, and potentially $110. Counter-trend long trades only if volume capitulation spike and CMF turn positive materialize at $118-121 zone—otherwise maintain short bias until price reclaims $160 critical reversal level.

The Bottom Line: Solana faces one of the most unified bearish technical structures of the November correction cycle. While extreme oversold conditions create near-term bounce risk, the structural failure of weekly MA support at $159.70, combined with ADX 50.24 powerful downtrend and negative intraday CMF, suggests any relief is a gift for short entry rather than trend reversal. The coming 48-72 hours will test whether $121.37 floor holds (stabilization setup) or breaks (acceleration to $115-120 base target). Until price reclaims and holds $160, bearish bias should dominate tactical positioning.

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