Reclaims, fragile thrust, and fast-average pressure frame the next fork on each chart.
AAVE, BTC, ETH, SOL — Final Notes Recap – 29 08 2025
AAVE — “Waiting for the Reclaim.” The ledger midpoint remains 333–336. Until a 4H close above that band with MACD crossing up and CMF back to neutral, treat bounces as inventory exits. If rejected again, the bleed path toward 322–325 stays in play as buyers fail to print higher highs.
BTC — Structure intact but momentum uneven. Bulls must defend 117,400 first, then 116,200 if stress returns. A clean reclaim and hold above ~119,900 would flip near-term bias back up and put 120k+ back on the table; below that, it’s still chop with sellers fading pops into resistance.
ETH — Higher-timeframe uptrend, lower-timeframe fatigue. We flagged an imminent pullback as RSI/SRSI cooled and CMF dipped. Preferred buy zones sit in 3,700–3,650 first, then 3,500 if momentum fails to re-accelerate. Fresh thrust requires renewed breadth and MACD re-curl before chasing strength.
SOL — Bears control the tape while price sits beneath the fast DEMA cluster across intraday frames. Until those fast averages are reclaimed, rallies look like distribution. We continue to respect a corrective window toward 183–180, with any sustained reclaim of the fast band needed to argue for upside continuation.
#️⃣ #BTC #ETH #SOL #AAVE #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DEMA #RSI #MACD #Floscacei
AAVE — Pullback Within Structure
Today AAVE trades below its intraday DEMA cluster, with 2H, 4H, and 6H momentum still skewed lower even as the weekly backdrop remains constructive. Yesterday we looked for stabilization near the fast daily averages; instead, those averages rolled over and the 4H cluster turned into overhead supply. That shift reframed the action as a classic corrective downswing inside a broader uptrend. Compared with yesterday, breadth contracted, negative money flow increased, and the market respected resistance on every attempt to bounce, underscoring the need to fade strength until leadership changes. Our operating plan is intentionally modest: sell the 318–321 area unless price can print a decisive 4H close back above 321 and then hold a clean retest from above. If that evidence appears, the path of least resistance pivots quickly toward 327–333 as trapped shorts cover. On the downside we continue to monitor 305–301 as the first demand shelf; should liquidity sweep deeper, the 295 zone aligns with slower daily DEMAs and prior acceptance and would be a logical place to stalk longs with tight risk. We also acknowledge early signs that downside momentum is decelerating on the 6H chart; that can seed a brief mean-reversion bounce, but it does not change the short-term bias while the 4H baseline caps price. Relative to yesterday, then, our confidence in the short-the-rip approach has increased, while our longer-term view remains constructive provided weekly structure holds above 302. We will judge success by whether rallies continue to fail beneath 321 or, alternatively, by whether bulls reclaim and defend that level. For the next twenty-four hours we expect a range between 305 and 318 with spikes rejected near resistance; over forty-eight hours, either continued chop in 299–322 or an upside transition if the reclaim occurs. Discipline around entries and invalidations matters more than bravado here; let the market prove strength before flipping the bias. #AAVE #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DEMA #MACD #RiskManagemen
BTC slips beneath MAs as 108k becomes the line in the sand.
Bitcoin extended its pullback today, printing below every key DEMA on the 12-hour and daily timeframes while momentum remains negative. Yesterday’s rebound attempts never reclaimed the 4- to 6-hour fast averages, and the MACD on those frames rolled back under the signal with fresh negative histogram, confirming that sellers still control the rhythm. RSI readings sit in the mid-30s on the 4H/6H/12H and high-30s on the daily, consistent with weak bounces that fade at nearby resistance. DMI also leans bearish with −DI over +DI and subdued ADX, which tells us the trend is down but not yet in a panic phase. On the weekly chart, structure is wobbling but not decisively broken; the 70-period DEMA near 108k remains the pivotal shelf. Yesterday we expected rallies to stall beneath 112k and for price to drift toward 109–108k, and that’s largely what unfolded. It wasn’t a crash, but the market respected resistance and worked lower, which keeps the burden of proof on the bulls. From here, a firm break and acceptance below 108k would likely usher in a probe of 106.5k and possibly 104–105k, where prior demand and measured levels cluster. Conversely, the fastest way for bulls to change the tone is a 4H close back above roughly 112.3k with improving MACD; that would set the stage for a retest of 113.5–116k, where the heavier supply sits. Until then, we continue to prefer fading strength into the 111–112k pocket with tight risk. Manage position size carefully: volatility around these inflection zones can be deceptive, and failed breaks are common. #Bitcoin #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #BTCUSDT #PriceAction
ETH: Correction Within Uptrend—Focus on the 4.30–4.33k Pivot
Yesterday we framed ETH as a bullish market on higher timeframes with a short-term setback. The plan called for a hold near 4.33k or a shallow sweep into 4.28–4.30k, then a rotation toward 4.48–4.52k. Today’s tape followed the corrective path but progressed more slowly than ideal. The 2–6H charts stayed depressed beneath their DEMA clusters, MACD remained sub-zero or flattened, CMF wavered, and most oscillators sat oversold. That mix kept the intraday tone heavy and made timing tricky, but it also suggests the decline is tiring rather than accelerating. Our read yesterday was directionally sound, though execution would have benefited from more patience.
Right now the market sits between a bearish short-term posture and resilient higher timeframes. On 2–6H, price is still below the fast DEMAs so sellers retain near-term leverage. On 12H and 1D, structure is intact: price respects the fast averages, DI+ still edges DI-, and pullbacks keep attracting tentative sponsorship. The weekly profile remains constructive with expanding MACD and firm RSI, yet the overbought stochastic warns that rallies can be jagged and prone to shakeouts. In other words, the trend is up, but it is not a straight line.
Into the next sessions we expect basing around 4.30–4.33k with tolerance for a brief liquidity sweep toward 4.28k. Above that pivot, a reclaim of 4.48–4.52k should open a test of 4.60–4.66k, where partial profit-taking is prudent given weekly stretch. A decisive break below 4.28k with rising volume would shift risk toward a deeper mean reversion into the mid-4.1s before the uptrend can resume. Our stance favors patient dip buys over chasing: ladder entries from 4.36k down to 4.30k, invalidate beneath 4.27–4.28k, scale profits into 4.52k and 4.60–4.66k, and reassess at resistance. Until breadth or money flow improves decisively, respect the volatility and let levels do the talking.
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #DEMA
SOLUSDT: Trend Intact, Momentum Pausing, Levels Mattered Today
Today’s session on SOL felt like a controlled exhale rather than a trend failure. Price remained perched above every key DEMA across intraday and higher frames, with the 2H and 4H stacks still cleanly ordered and the daily structure firmly positive. What changed versus yesterday was not the structure but the tempo: intraday momentum bled off as MACD eased on the 2H and Stoch RSI swung from overbought to oversold, while CMF stayed slightly negative—classic signs of digestion after a strong leg. That is broadly consistent with yesterday’s expectation for shallow pullbacks while the 12H and 1D trends continued to carry the baton. Bulls defended the 206–208 region on first tests, mapping neatly to the rising 4H/6H fast DEMAs and setting the stage for a stabilizing bounce toward 212–214, with an outside chance to probe 216 if energy returns. Where we were arguably most successful was in the risk map: the idea to treat ~199–200 as the line in the sand proved useful, as price respected the higher cluster and never forced a deeper reset. Less successful was the immediate impulse continuation call; momentum cooled faster than ideal and flow (CMF) never quite confirmed, reminding us to stagger entries and let oscillators cycle. Looking ahead, the next day or two likely oscillate inside a constructive 205–216 band; hold above 206 and the market can attempt 217–220 into strength, while a clean break under 202 would open a more thorough mean reversion into the high-190s before buyers try again. Net, the path of least resistance remains higher, but it’s a path walked with patience and disciplined invalidation rather than bravado. #Solana #SOLUSDT #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RiskManagement
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The content in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Any opinions, strategies, or analyses shared reflect my personal views and experiences. I may hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL), which could influence my perspective.
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