Four Majors, One Tape: Bounces, Gates, and Laddered Plans
A recap of our AAVE, BTC, ETH, and SOL reads plus execution tactics
Across the board we focused on timeframe alignment and how momentum versus structure differed by asset. For AAVE, lower windows stayed hesitant beneath the 70-DEMA while mid and higher frames remained constructive above rising medium and slow averages. Money flow was mixed, oscillators hinted at a bounce, and we marked dips into 323–320 and 316–315 as attractive provided daily structure held. Resistance clustered near 334–336 and again around 342–345, framing a mildly bullish twenty-four to forty-eight hour bias.
BTC presented the clearest case of reflex strength fighting a damaged midframe trend. The two-hour turned up, yet the four-hour through daily still sat beneath fast averages, keeping control with sellers unless 113k–116k was reclaimed. We highlighted 110.3k–110k as key support, with a deeper pocket into the high 108s and even 106s if momentum faded. Our expectation favored rotational trade: hold 110k and probe 113.6k–114.1k, then 115.5k–116k; lose it and test 109k–108k first.
ETH packed the most nuanced setup. Intraday charts improved, but the advance kept running into the same gate: 4.65k–4.68k. We described a binary path—either a confirmed breakout above that band, ideally on a six-hour close, or a patient pullback into 4.585k–4.560k and 4.545k–4.520k where trend support waited. Daily and weekly remained favorable, yet momentum cooled enough to warn against chasing until money flow and MACD re-accelerated.
Solana led strength. Price rode above stacked DEMAs on two-hour through daily, and the weekly profile expanded higher. The caution flag was heat: RSI and Stochastic RSI pressed into overbought on intraday views, raising odds of shallow pauses rather than immediate failure. We framed decision areas at 208–212 and 216–220. Acceptance above those zones invited continuation; rejection implied orderly mean-reversion toward 204–202 or the 200–199 shelf before buyers attempted again. Overall, trends skew constructive, but confirmation and patience remain our edge this week.
AAVE Daily Check-In: Bulls Tiring, Structure Holding
Today AAVE looks like a runner easing to catch breath after a brisk lap: intraday pushes faded, fast averages flattened, and several oscillators rolled over, yet the broader structure that supported yesterday’s advance remains intact. Yesterday we enjoyed tighter alignment, firmer MACD bars on the mid frames, and closes hugging the short DEMAs; today the 2H–6H windows show softer curves, thinning or negative histograms, and RSI readings orbiting the neutral band, all characteristic of digestion rather than defeat. Money flow cooled on intraday charts, flipping slightly negative at times, while the daily and weekly profiles still display constructive slopes and higher lows. Compared with yesterday, our execution was modestly less successful: the market offered better opportunities for patience than for momentum chasing, and late buyers were nudged back toward support. Even so, the daily 70-period average continues to rise beneath price, and the slower DEMAs remain well stacked, suggesting that pullbacks into prior breakout zones should attract bids before structural damage occurs.
For the next sessions, my working map favors a probe into 323–320, with an extension toward 316–315 if sellers press their advantage; holding either zone should reset oscillators and allow a grind back to 334–336, with 342–345 achievable if momentum rekindles. A decisive daily close below 314 would force a reassessment toward 309–305, where bigger picture participants may defend the trend.
In sum, the bull case is intact but winded, the bear case opportunistic rather than dominant, and the optimal stance is disciplined dip-buying with staggered entries and pre-defined invalidation rather than aggressive breakout chasing. We were a bit less right today than yesterday, but the plan remains coherent: respect support, fade euphoria, and let the higher-timeframe structure do the heavy lifting until proven otherwise.
#AAVE #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #DeFi #PriceAction #RiskManagement
BTC Daily Note: Stabilizing Attempt Amid A Damaged Structure
Today BTC produced the intraday bounce we anticipated, yet it developed beneath declining fast averages, reminding us that reflex rallies are not trend reversals. Yesterday’s action was clearly heavier: price lived below the 4H and 6H fast DEMAs, MACD histograms were negative, and money flow softened. Today’s tone improved at the edges—on 2H the MACD curved higher, RSI climbed back toward the mid band, and Stochastic RSI advanced—but price still sits under the 4H and 12H 70-period averages and remains below the daily fast set, so bulls haven’t earned a full reset. Compared with yesterday, we were modestly successful: support around 110–111k invited bids and reactive buys outperformed chases. However, confirmation still rests with levels. Reclaiming 113k on 6H would be the first real step toward structural repair; closes back above 115–116k on 12H would convert a bounce into sustainable rebuilding. Without those, the market stays vulnerable to another test of 110.3k and perhaps a sweep into the 108.5k pocket where higher-timeframe participants may defend.
Looking ahead, my base case is rotational. Dips into 111.2k–110.8k and 110.3k–110.0k remain buyable with tight invalidation, while bounces into 113.6k–114.1k and 115.5k–116.0k are places to harvest partial profits until momentum and money flow turn broadly positive again. The weekly profile still trends up over the slower bands, but it’s cooling beneath the 70-period average, so patience and staggered bids beat urgency. We were more right on supports than on the speed of recovery, and that humility keeps us focused on process: define risk, scale methodically, and let confirmations pull us higher rather than forcing trades into resistance. If 6H closes above 113k and 12H rebuilds above 115–116k, a path opens toward the mid-117s; lose 110k on a closing basis and we prepare for 108.5k, with tail-risk probes into the 106s where weekly buyers may step back in.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskManagement #PriceAction
ETH Daily Note: Bounce Has Energy, But 4.65k–4.68k Is The Gate
ETH spent the session rotating higher on intraday windows while still rubbing up against fast moving averages that haven’t flipped decisively. Yesterday’s tone was heavier: price lived below short EMAs across 2H–6H, money flow wavered, and momentum rolled over. Today brought improvement where we hoped to see it. On 2H, MACD crossed up, RSI pushed back through fifty, and CMF ticked positive. The 4H shows price reclaiming slower bands and leaning into the green average, yet the red 70-period around 4.68k remains the gatekeeper. Until that’s recaptured on a closing basis, bounces are probable, but trend change isn’t confirmed.
Zooming out, the 12H context is still constructive, though price sits beneath an elevated 70-period average; the daily trend remains favorable with ETH hovering above its 70-DMA, offering dip buyers a defined line to lean against while momentum rebuilds. Compared with yesterday, we were more right about the rebound potential, less right about the speed of repair; money flow hasn’t fully returned, and Stochastic RSI is already hot on some intraday frames, so chasing into resistance is risky.
My plan remains two-track: either wait for a 6H/4H combo close above 4.663–4.680k with improving CMF to validate a continuation, or bid patiently into 4.585–4.560k and 4.545–4.520k with a firm invalidation below 4.50k. If buyers achieve the breakout, 4.72–4.75k is the first harvest zone, with 4.78–4.82k on renewed momentum; failure to hold 4.65k keeps rotation in play and argues for another dip before trend repair.
Discipline over impatience remains the edge: define risk, scale methodically, and let confirmation pull you into strength rather than guessing at it.
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RiskManagement
SOL Daily Check-In: Strength Holds, Fades Need Proof
Today Solana displayed broad strength across timeframes. Intraday momentum expanded, with the two-hour and four-hour charts pushing above stacked EMAs and oscillators pressing into overbought territory. Yesterday’s tone was already constructive, but money flow was patchy and momentum uneven; today that improved, though not uniformly.
The two-hour RSI and Stochastic RSI are hot, which often precedes digestion rather than immediate failure, while the six-hour shows a gentler slope in MACD that argues for moderation after the impulse. On the higher frames, twelve-hour and daily trends remain pointed higher with rising 70-period averages beneath price, a supportive posture that kept pullbacks shallow compared with yesterday’s back-and-fill. We were modestly successful anticipating dip-buying near 200; less successful was expecting a stronger money-flow surge on the midframes, which stayed mixed through parts of the session.
Looking forward, the nearby bands at 208–212 represent the first real decision area; acceptance above that pocket could open 216–220, where prior liquidity may attract sellers. A countertrend short is valid only if momentum shows fatigue—specifically, a two-hour Stochastic RSI cross down from overbought combined with the first red MACD histogram bar or a clear rejection wick.
Without those tells, fading strength fights the prevailing structure and risks getting steamrolled. Conversely, constructive pullbacks into 200–199 and 196–195 should continue to find dip buyers as long as daily closes hold above 194.
My base case is range expansion upward, interrupted by brief consolidations as overheated intraday oscillators reset. If bulls clear 212 with rising money flow, 216–220 becomes the next harvest zone; failure there returns price to 204–202 and perhaps 200 before another attempt. Process over prediction: wait for reversal signals to fade, otherwise respect the trend.
#SOL #Solana #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RiskManagement
📜 Disclaimer ⚠️
The content in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Any opinions, strategies, or analyses shared reflect my personal views and experiences. I may hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL), which could influence my perspective.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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