Market Recap — Cooling Momentum, Heavy Tape -26 08 2025
Bitcoin, Solana, Ethereum, and AAVE test support as rallies stall
Across majors, the week’s tone is one of exhaustion more than collapse. Bitcoin remains pressed beneath its DEMA clusters on every intraday frame, stretched 2–6% below its 70-period moving averages. Momentum is oversold, with RSI and StochRSI compressed and CMF showing persistent outflows, yet the market is stabilizing. Support near 109k–108k holds the key; if it steadies, rebounds toward 112k–115k are possible, while a failure exposes 107,500. Shorts look unattractive at these levels.
Solana trades heavy under fast averages as well, with MACD histograms negative, RSI lagging, and CMF sub-zero. Each rally into 192–196 is sold, and until 199–200 is reclaimed, pressure stays skewed lower. A 182–185 washout remains possible before fresh bids, with longer-term value closer to 178–180.
Ethereum shows a similar rhythm: still in a broadly bullish DEMA structure, but signs of near-term fatigue are evident. RSI hovers at stretched levels, StochRSI is overbought, and CMF has begun to flatten, hinting at cooling inflows. Support at 3650–3700 could be tested before buyers attempt another leg higher.
AAVE remains locked under the 333–336 band that has repeatedly capped rallies. Momentum on lower frames is suppressed, with MACD and CMF negative. Until that zone is reclaimed on a four-hour close, bounces look like distribution rather than the start of a new trend. Below 322, liquidity zones sit at 318 and 314–308.
Taken together, the majors share one trait: structure intact on higher frames but momentum fading beneath. This favors patience, tactical entries near defined supports, and caution with chasing upside until conviction returns.
AAVE Daily Note — “Waiting for the Reclaim”
Yesterday’s trade framed a simple fork: reclaim 333–336 for continuation or bleed back toward 322–325. Today, price action respected the latter path. Lower timeframes showed MACD below its signal with a negative histogram, StochRSI suppressed, and money flow drifting subzero—classic tells of a market losing thrust after an energetic push. Higher frames (12-hour and daily) still carry respectable structure—price sits above rising medium EMAs and daily MACD remains positive—but momentum is clearly fading, and trend strength, as reflected by ADX, has eased. That split explains why rallies keep stalling beneath 333–336 and why buyers have struggled to establish higher highs.
Compared with yesterday, breadth looks thinner. The four- and six-hour slopes failed to re-accelerate, and each attempt into resistance was met with supply. Our takeaway is modest and practical: treat 333–336 as the ledger’s midpoint. Until that area is reclaimed on a four-hour closing basis with MACD crossing up and CMF back to neutral or better, we assume bounces are inventory exits, not the start of a new leg. If 322 gives way, the next meaningful liquidity pockets sit at 318 and 314–308, where prior demand responded.
Were we successful yesterday? Partly. We mapped the downside if 333 failed, but we were too lenient about buying 333–336 without momentum confirmation. Today we correct that: momentum is now a gating condition. Looking forward, we see a choppy, heavy tape unless bulls can swiftly reclaim 336–340; otherwise, the path of least resistance remains lower into 314–308 before any earnest attempt to trend resumes.
#AAVE #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Altcoins #RiskManagement
Bitcoin Daily Reflection: August 26, 2025.
Yesterday, the structure across all intraday and higher timeframes already leaned toward weakness, with Bitcoin trading consistently below its respective DEMA clusters. That trend continued today, with the market showing further confirmation of bearish pressure across the two-hour, four-hour, six-hour, and daily charts. The notable factor is how deeply stretched price has become from fast DEMA levels, with multiple frames showing the market more than two to six percent under its 70-period moving averages. This paints a picture of weakness, but also one of exhaustion, since such deviations rarely sustain without either consolidation or a relief rebound.
Momentum indicators echo the same story. RSI and Stochastic RSI values are heavily depressed across nearly all frames, underscoring oversold conditions that limit the appeal of fresh shorts. The DMI and ADX confirm that the prevailing trend remains bearish, though strength is not accelerating and, in some cases, is beginning to soften. CMF flows add nuance, showing continued selling pressure on shorter frames but some stabilization on higher ones, suggesting capital inflows remain supportive at the longer horizon.Comparing today to yesterday, there is little evidence of a strong reversal, but there is more evidence of stabilization.
The test of support zones near 109,000 and potentially 108,000 aligns with what was anticipated. If these zones hold, the probability of a rebound toward the 112,000 to 113,000 range in the next twenty-four hours increases meaningfully. In the forty-eight-hour view, if momentum carries, tests of 114,000 to 115,000 could follow. If instead these supports give way, the next clear invalidation level sits at 107,500.Overall, shorting at these levels remains unattractive due to the compressed oscillator readings. The market calls for patience and watchfulness, favoring tactical longs on stabilization and confirmation signals rather than aggressive positioning. Today confirms the weakness observed yesterday, but also strengthens the case for a measured bounce in the short term.
ETH: Short-Term Pressure Builds While Higher-Timeframe Floor Holds
Yesterday we noted that Ethereum’s rebounds were stalling beneath the fast DEMA cluster and that rallies into 4,547–4,595 were likely to fade rather than trend. Today’s tape largely confirmed that view. Price remains pinned below the 70/140/210 DEMAs on intraday charts, and each four-hour RSI uptick has struggled to clear its moving average before rolling back over. The six-hour panel is the key tell: momentum has curled down, the RSI average is grinding toward the 50 line, and Stoch RSI is depressed, all of which tends to cap the 4H recovery attempts. Compared with yesterday, capital flow has not improved meaningfully and directional movement still favors sellers, so our tactical “fade the pop” stance was modestly successful, though the choppy rhythm kept reward contained and demanded tight risk management. The immediate battleground is 4,360–4,330; lose that shelf and the market likely inspects 4,290, with a deeper weekly cushion near 4,214–4,100 if liquidation accelerates. Conversely, the weekly structure remains constructive enough to argue that this is a mid-cycle pullback rather than a late-cycle breakdown, so sharp counter-trend rallies can still occur from oversold readings. Over the next twenty-four hours we expect range behavior with a mild downside skew, anchored by resistance at 4,547–4,595 and supported initially by 4,360–4,330. Over the next forty-eight hours the path of least resistance remains lower unless buyers reclaim 4,595 decisively; a six-hour RSI average break beneath 50 alongside a negative CMF would likely mark a broader risk-off day and open a slide toward 4,290. Invalidation is straightforward: a sustained move back above 4,595 with improving momentum would neutralize the slide and set 4,630–4,660 as the next objective. Until that occurs, we respect the selling pressure, keep position sizes disciplined, and treat bounces as opportunities to reassess rather than chase.
#Ethereum #ETHUSDT #CryptoMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RiskManagement
Solana Softens Under the Fast Averages as Bulls Cede Near-Term Control
Today Solana trades beneath its fast DEMA cluster across intraday charts, confirming that bears currently dictate the tape. Momentum gauges echo the message: 2H/4H MACD histograms are negative and RSI readings sit below their averages, while Chaikin Money Flow has slipped modestly sub-zero, pointing to distribution rather than accumulation. Price responses to bounces have been labored, with rallies stalling into the 192–196 area where multiple short-term averages converge and sellers quickly re-appear. Yesterday’s action was a grind lower from failed retests of the same band, so the character of trade has not changed—just a little more time spent below the fast trend lines and a little more proof that bulls aren’t yet ready to defend higher.
We were cautiously defensive yesterday and that stance proved reasonable rather than heroic: there was no waterfall, but every pop was sold. Today we continue to respect that pattern. The daily chart adds context: RSI hovers near 52 but under its signal, MACD stays beneath zero, and the DMI arrangement favors the sellers even as trend strength remains modest. On the weekly timeframe the bigger trend still tilts bullish, yet momentum is clearly cooling, which argues for patience on fresh swing longs.
Our near-term roadmap is straightforward. Into the next twenty-four hours, we expect a choppy 186–196 range with downside skew unless price can reclaim and hold above 199–200. Over forty-eight hours, a wider 182–202 envelope is likely; repeated failures below 199–200 would keep risk pointed toward 182–185 before stronger bids arrive. Tactically, we prefer fading bounces into 192–196 with invalidation above 200–202. For swing buyers, value likely lives lower: the 178–180 zone aligns with prior demand and becomes attractive if reached, especially if momentum divergences appear.
#Solana #SOL #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #RiskManagement
📜 Disclaimer ⚠️
The content in this publication is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor.
Any opinions, strategies, or analyses shared reflect my personal views and experiences. I may hold positions in the cryptocurrencies mentioned (e.g., BTC, ETH, SOL), which could influence my perspective.
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